Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff40cb875da374ab79703b1ef7171cff8b6229c12c2e86852bde73eaf817e9a1

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $990,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $581,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $990,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 580 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	34,415$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$727.85	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	31,714$3,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,810.83	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	14c	31,652$4,304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,304.06	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	12,645$809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.33	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	7c	9,800$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.63	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	21c	9,786$2,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,075.07	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	10c	9,641$989 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$989.45	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	27c	9,326$2,474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,473.57	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	8,504$1,407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,406.53	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	11c	8,000$848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$848	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	9c	7,773$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.72	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	14c	7,648$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.8	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	5c	7,259$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.36	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	9c	6,792$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.73	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	6,676$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	6,200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	6,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	17c	5,923$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	5,776$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.31	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	14c	5,210$741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$740.59	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	4,742$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.75	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	4,458$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.45	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	10c	4,294$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.26	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	4,112$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	14c	4,099$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.49	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	10c	4,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,800$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	18c	3,797$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	3,755$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	11c	3,500$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.35	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	16c	3,433$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.24	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	17c	3,174$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.76	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	32c	3,173$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	3,114$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	3,073$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.63	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	11c	3,039$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.23	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	28c	3,005$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$834.43	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	8c	3,000$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	10c	3,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	7c	2,907$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.42	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No	73c	2,884$2,113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$770.52	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	4c	2,854$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.32	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,816$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.23	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No	78c	2,705$2,122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.7	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	65cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	14c	2,637$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.99	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	74c	2,634$1,950 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$683.51	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	20c	2,554$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$519.59	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	17c	2,512$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	2,500$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff1…bd17backed Yes	3c	2,480$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.9	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ad…3ad7backed Yes	10c	2,451$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.07	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	2,439$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	7c	2,377$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.65	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	8c	2,347$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.5	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf43…e5b9backed Yes	30c	2,318$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes	14c	2,300$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.5	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	7c	2,159$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.27	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	18c	2,110$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.32	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	20c	2,105$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.23	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	28c	2,099$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595.63	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	79c	2,088$1,639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.78	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	7c	2,078$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.41	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	2,047$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.62	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	2,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.97	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	3c	1,988$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.59	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	7c	1,831$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.13	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	6c	1,830$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.41	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Yes	5c	1,828$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+97.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	19c	1,800$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.8	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	13c	1,770$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.12	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	8c	1,767$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.07	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	19c	1,759$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.16	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,749$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36a2…f61fbacked Yes	14c	1,747$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.83	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x258e…53d7backed Yes	2c	1,700$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.42	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	27c	1,598$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.21	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked No	69c	1,588$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.08	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	24c	1,573$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.7	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	13c	1,571$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	1,558$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.02	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	20c	1,554$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.39	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	6c	1,549$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	6c	1,500$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	33c	1,500$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.76	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de9…ed09backed Yes	4c	1,418$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.44	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	19c	1,407$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4626…f192backed Yes	10c	1,384$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7506…6740backed Yes	30c	1,361$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.34	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc082…92b9backed Yes	34c	1,315$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.05	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	23c	1,300$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.89	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	11c	1,300$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.64	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	14c	1,280$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.95	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,252$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.46	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,250$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.88	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	14c	1,243$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.65	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	17c	1,209$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.08	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…c5cdbacked Yes	2c	1,200$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes	6c	1,200$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	9c	1,191$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.2	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event