Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8113dd964f245dca0debc781ad2956e1a016d368f99f48ef16a91aee6f54bf65

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,120,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $445,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,120,336 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x14d0…8df8backed Yes	0c	153,490$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.85	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	137,895$611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.2	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	0c	52,951$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	0c	30,537$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.54	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7580…853dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	20,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes	0c	18,027$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.03	24	0%0 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	17,281$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes	5c	16,364$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$759.62	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	15,630$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.63	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	14,271$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.97	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,884$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	0c	11,566$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd596…76ebbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	10,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	9,179$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	9,113$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.61	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ec2…59e6backed Yes	3c	9,051$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	8c	8,856$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.31	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	8,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	0c	6,156$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	0c	5,195$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.27	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f82…88fdbacked Yes	0c	5,011$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3703…f61fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+126.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	2c	5,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	4,988$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.3	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	4,748$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.91	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	6c	4,628$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.09	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	5c	4,600$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.5	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	4,536$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.64	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	4,415$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.79	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	3c	4,000$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	1c	3,639$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.94	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,400$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.2	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,366$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.21	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	6c	3,218$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.35	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	3,107$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	3,081$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	3,000$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.23	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	5c	2,708$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.4	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3e…c728backed Yes	1c	2,700$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	2,579$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.37	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	1c	2,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94c3…94abbacked Yes	2c	2,408$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.26	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	4c	2,271$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	5c	2,245$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.77	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x560b…5bf9backed Yes	4c	2,105$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.48	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	4c	1,979$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.56	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	1,883$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.82	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	11c	1,859$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb126…8a5abacked Yes	6c	1,853$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66d8…8258backed Yes	3c	1,833$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.95	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	2c	1,720$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,666$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.83	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	1c	1,649$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c49…9525backed Yes	5c	1,531$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.57	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	1,500$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.1	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	8c	1,484$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.88	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	1,446$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.31	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	7c	1,417$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.42	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,312$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.76	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f82…22e1backed Yes	4c	1,262$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.64	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-42%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89c6…6f63backed Yes	8c	1,250$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.5	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa90…b224backed Yes	2c	1,206$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e58…efdabacked Yes	8c	1,193$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.71	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+68.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e9…3cf1backed Yes	2c	1,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a2d…e075backed Yes	3c	1,097$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	78	33.3%26 W · 52 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes	4c	1,091$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.01	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1707…9b9fbacked Yes	7c	1,083$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.84	118	20.3%24 W · 94 L	-4.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	1,035$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.4	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d44…c77ebacked Yes	6c	1,026$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	10c	999.99$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	999.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	6c	999.84$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.08	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	982.62$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.38	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	9c	972.38$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.14	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	10c	965.95$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8a…d7e7backed Yes	8c	946.67$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.97	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	11c	884.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	12c	852.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	835$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.05	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed Yes	2c	799.28$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.97	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	790.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.13	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	753.82$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.43	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	4c	725.59$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	700$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	3c	700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	9c	699.98$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	4c	695.29$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	689.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.43	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4626…f192backed Yes	6c	683.33$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	4c	645.08$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.38	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a90…2827backed Yes	4c	618.72$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.89	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	4c	600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	11c	600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes	5c	598.78$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.28	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event