Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc5b0e5a38b1e2b0bf057b3fdc0c72657d1deca1678d30b3bcceae13c3b8c694

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,364,151
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $833,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,364,151 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 548 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	59,750$1,910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,909.52	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	46,913$3,776 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,775.87	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	28,400$2,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,098.14	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	21,000$1,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,998.59	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	10c	14,831$1,553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,552.99	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	14,576$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,177.7	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	11c	12,742$1,379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,379.1	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	11c	12,722$1,420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,420.14	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	21c	11,518$2,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,403.23	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	5c	11,339$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.28	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1116…5ca3backed Yes	18c	11,227$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	6c	10,234$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.94	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	6c	9,825$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.41	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	14c	9,786$1,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,345.31	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	27c	9,326$2,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,478.63	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	8,300$1,138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,137.88	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	8c	8,000$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	17c	7,910$1,372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,372.41	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	7,294$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.6	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	7c	7,294$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.86	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	79c	6,546$5,162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,384.04	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes	16c	6,427$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	13c	6,380$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.26	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	3c	6,233$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.43	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	8c	6,175$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	7c	5,961$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.45	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	15c	5,349$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$802.12	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	24c	5,260$1,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,240.39	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	2c	5,202$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258e…53d7backed Yes	4c	4,969$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.92	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	17c	4,750$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.43	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	7c	4,684$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.45	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes	3c	4,581$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.81	103	22.3%23 W · 80 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,520$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.85	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	4,395$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.32	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a2…f61fbacked Yes	5c	4,154$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	4,063$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8593…8865backed Yes	5c	3,997$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	3,872$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.55	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	3,779$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.86	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6388…7622backed Yes	13c	3,737$486 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.41	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	5c	3,638$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,539$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	16c	3,533$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.56	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	14c	3,489$503 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.32	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	7c	3,477$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.5	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	3,401$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.62	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	17c	3,384$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$585.37	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	1c	3,333$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	17c	3,211$532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.21	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	3,208$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.78	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xaf43…e5b9backed Yes	13c	3,012$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	9c	3,000$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.13	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	3,000$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.25	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	2c	3,000$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	12c	3,000$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.81	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	5c	2,999$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.96	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes	10c	2,986$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.6	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe17f…9d41backed Yes	6c	2,973$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.73	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	2,972$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.1	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	17c	2,844$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.72	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,794$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,792$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.68	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	5c	2,763$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.22	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	12c	2,573$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.39	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	18c	2,470$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.71	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	5c	2,419$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.02	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	21c	2,400$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$504	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	15c	2,384$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.75	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	5c	2,362$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.43	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	7c	2,358$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.85	69	20.3%14 W · 55 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+207.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	78c	2,350$1,825 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$525.4	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	8c	2,319$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.27	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	12c	2,296$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.92	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	10c	2,205$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.7	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf545…305bbacked Yes	5c	2,125$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	16c	2,106$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.03	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	14c	2,088$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.1	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	9c	2,075$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	7c	2,021$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	14c	2,000$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.31	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	2c	2,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes	8c	1,880$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.13	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb60…3ce8backed Yes	4c	1,803$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	18c	1,802$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.43	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a7…108bbacked Yes	13c	1,801$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	12c	1,800$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.7	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	3c	1,780$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.09	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	13c	1,700$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.72	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8755…e152backed Yes	2c	1,695$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.77	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes	2c	1,694$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.73	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	7c	1,689$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.19	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebed…e737backed Yes	17c	1,618$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.12	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-3.7wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes	10c	1,553$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.96	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	18c	1,545$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes	5c	1,506$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	131	16.8%22 W · 109 L	+4.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	12c	1,500$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.98	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event