Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb27d0893ec4de3c1b59d892906a65e69ea466f03fa93f889a20360842c82fc27

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,330,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $779,400

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,330,464 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 721 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	129,765$3,597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,597.24	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	33,597$1,749 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,749.01	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	19c	23,145$4,385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,385.38	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	20,000$2,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,029.67	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	17,776$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.85	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	9c	13,391$1,219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,218.81	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	12c	12,584$1,509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,509.4	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	23c	12,488$2,860 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,859.6	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	20c	11,727$2,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,288.3	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	11,570$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.79	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	20c	11,518$2,266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,266.38	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	35c	10,117$3,551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,550.78	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	8c	10,000$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.98	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	7c	9,326$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.44	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	18c	8,720$1,533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,533.44	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	4c	8,177$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59e…2b99backed Yes	34c	8,173$2,789 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,789	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	8,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1116…5ca3backed Yes	23c	7,904$1,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,815.55	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	7,479$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.23	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	12c	7,448$865 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$865.07	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	27c	7,010$1,887 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,887.13	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	8c	6,156$515 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.4	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	25c	6,014$1,478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,478.12	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	3c	6,010$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.62	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	21c	5,977$1,236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,236.39	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	6c	5,888$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.51	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	21c	5,741$1,226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,226.08	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07c5…f00cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	4,966$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.98	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	14c	4,788$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.97	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	11c	4,729$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$515.68	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	80c	4,398$3,504 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$893.44	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	24c	4,370$1,069 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,069.48	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	36c	4,364$1,581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,580.64	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,347$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.38	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	17c	4,303$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.7	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc77a…8546backed Yes	11c	4,229$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.86	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+3.4wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+130.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	4,125$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.93	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	8c	4,031$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.12	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	5c	4,000$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	11c	3,976$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	15c	3,972$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.52	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	9c	3,948$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.23	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes	21c	3,943$823 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$822.55	134	30.6%41 W · 93 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	13c	3,855$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.04	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	17c	3,834$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.4	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	3,764$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.87	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	11c	3,700$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	8c	3,669$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	7c	3,600$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.16	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	3,577$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.27	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	20c	3,526$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.48	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	21c	3,474$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$728.4	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	3,402$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.99	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	3c	3,384$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc940…02d2backed Yes	9c	3,382$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.23	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	12cpaid	+274.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed No	76c	3,274$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$773.78	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	3,260$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.4	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	17c	3,230$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.32	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2328…8db4backed Yes	37c	3,211$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,178.42	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-53%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes	8c	3,209$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.49	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	3,180$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.34	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	27c	3,101$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.09	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	11c	3,052$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.71	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.63	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	11c	3,000$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	3,000$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.77	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	8c	3,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.99	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,994$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.33	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes	15c	2,990$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.29	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	13c	2,948$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.02	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	18c	2,882$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.72	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	22c	2,837$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.21	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	23c	2,776$634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.88	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes	3c	2,739$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.52	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	19c	2,719$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.66	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9480…a200backed Yes	3c	2,693$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	59	28.8%17 W · 42 L	+4.0wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	2,571$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.59	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	41c	2,508$1,018 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,017.69	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	2,500$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.81	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	8c	2,500$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.5	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	14c	2,500$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	15c	2,500$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	6c	2,444$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.17	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	34c	2,412$829 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$829.46	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	2,373$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	25c	2,321$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.68	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1af3…2ddcbacked Yes	18c	2,321$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.84	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	17c	2,294$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes	19c	2,261$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.58	65	32.3%21 W · 44 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	4c	2,249$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	7c	2,228$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.62	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…0fa8backed Yes	33c	2,215$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$741.5	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes	9c	2,145$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.82	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	15c	2,145$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.98	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	2c	2,134$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.83	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	35c	2,072$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$716.39	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	11c	2,070$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event