Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf693ac2455c92bdaee75e8e443116f890f2d59dcaa2ca054962a48ea2c4bfaaf

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $974,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $548,962

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $974,738 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 249 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	100,100$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	25,272$890 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$889.92	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	6c	22,563$1,329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,329	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc969…3135backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,334$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	8c	10,445$885 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$885.1	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc710…f2aebacked Yes	2c	10,070$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	3c	9,786$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.92	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	8,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,533$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.26	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	3c	7,498$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.09	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Yes	1c	7,457$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.48	85	45.9%39 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	7,361$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	7,162$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.59	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	6,814$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.19	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	6,157$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.68	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fe…66f5backed Yes	1c	6,074$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	5,935$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.3	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	5,588$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.41	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	2c	5,487$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.05	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	5,090$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.71	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,946$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.08	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	4,550$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.69	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	4,540$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.26	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	6c	4,356$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.07	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked Yes	3c	4,000$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	3,954$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.39	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	4c	3,940$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.76	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	3,877$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	4c	3,521$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.45	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	4c	3,437$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.28	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	3,349$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.8	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	3,297$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.28	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	3c	3,247$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.07	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	0c	3,214$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	6c	3,189$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.56	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	11c	3,185$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.97	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	3c	3,096$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.97	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f93…7de2backed Yes	1c	3,029$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	3,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	4c	2,748$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.75	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	9c	2,704$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.55	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	2,658$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.78	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	6c	2,493$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.82	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	1c	2,422$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.43	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	2c	2,269$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.86	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	2,116$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.71	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36a2…f61fbacked Yes	9c	2,044$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.06	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,013$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.12	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	3c	2,011$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.58	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	2,000$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,960$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.13	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e0a…85bbbacked Yes	5c	1,952$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	7c	1,900$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.05	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	1,875$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	3c	1,826$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.83	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	8c	1,742$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes	3c	1,663$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7268…0b00backed Yes	3c	1,647$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.65	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	17c	1,575$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	12c	1,564$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.29	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	2c	1,557$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	8c	1,546$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.52	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb20…d6fcbacked Yes	5c	1,535$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.66	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6de…12f7backed Yes	1c	1,522$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	2c	1,500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34aa…980abacked Yes	16c	1,500$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.17	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8634…5677backed Yes	15c	1,500$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	13c	1,470$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.24	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…7a65backed Yes	3c	1,454$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.8	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4d20…76c2backed Yes	2c	1,448$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe082…aefabacked Yes	1c	1,409$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+50.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0899…2bc6backed Yes	2c	1,372$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	6c	1,361$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.13	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abe…488dbacked Yes	2c	1,294$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.29	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes	2c	1,292$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	2c	1,268$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.12	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…0541backed Yes	4c	1,216$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.7	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	2c	1,214$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.58	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e3…f87cbacked Yes	1c	1,214$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	7c	1,200$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.51	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	13c	1,200$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.96	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fa…222bbacked Yes	2c	1,193$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	71	31%22 W · 49 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-26%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	18c	1,095$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.61	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	2c	1,077$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x542f…58a1backed Yes	1c	1,067$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	1,012$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Yes	1c	1,004$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77e3…06a9backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	20c	1,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8269…7c3abacked Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	999.95$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	2c	999.93$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.48	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	19c	991.25$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes	8c	979.95$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.77	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+70%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	15c	974.84$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.01	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event