Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af93596d70f25f3253f452f9b52729d33dc2184d27fafa7da51e2ff0e258b83

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $914,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $577,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $914,928 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	55,889$898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$897.77	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	2c	38,118$856 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$856	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	3c	15,111$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.44	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,664$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	10,039$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	9,612$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	9,347$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.02	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	8,298$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.94	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…7a65backed Yes	1c	8,022$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	8,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	2c	7,782$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.01	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,764$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.41	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,755$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.77	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	6,123$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.63	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f93…7de2backed Yes	1c	6,068$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…0541backed Yes	0c	5,708$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	5,684$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.11	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7268…0b00backed Yes	1c	5,217$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	5,053$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.19	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	2c	5,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	0c	4,909$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	4,366$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.33	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	3,855$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	2c	3,772$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.29	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes	4c	3,516$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Yes	3c	3,514$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.81	85	45.9%39 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	3,467$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	1c	3,263$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.62	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	3,250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.52	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	1c	3,181$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.82	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	3,119$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.8	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	3,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	3,072$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.97	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7723…86b5backed Yes	1c	3,063$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.88	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	4c	3,007$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.94	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	3,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ac…37bbbacked Yes	0c	2,956$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	1c	2,939$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.08	184	12%22 W · 162 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	5c	2,899$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	2c	2,865$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.57	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x99b3…56eebacked Yes	4c	2,843$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-87.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes	1c	2,740$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	218	27.1%59 W · 159 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-27%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	1c	2,687$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.81	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	2c	2,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes	2c	2,491$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.45	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	2c	2,481$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.86	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32fc…68b3backed Yes	1c	2,467$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3abe…488dbacked Yes	2c	2,454$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.49	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	3c	2,343$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.95	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	2,334$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.93	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fe…66f5backed Yes	1c	2,054$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	2,017$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.34	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	2c	2,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…ce1abacked Yes	1c	1,992$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e3…f87cbacked Yes	1c	1,957$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d4…260ebacked Yes	2c	1,944$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.96	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf360…6726backed Yes	1c	1,922$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	108	24.1%26 W · 82 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…f3c9backed Yes	3c	1,895$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	5c	1,876$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.05	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3058…6896backed Yes	3c	1,847$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.83	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	2c	1,828$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.15	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	3c	1,795$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.44	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	1c	1,776$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cea…f8dfbacked Yes	3c	1,741$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.3	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc710…f2aebacked Yes	6c	1,695$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,663$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4523…9c64backed Yes	1c	1,652$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e0a…85bbbacked Yes	5c	1,639$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	1c	1,634$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	1,588$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb43c…1caebacked Yes	2c	1,568$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5761…ca2ebacked Yes	2c	1,559$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,554$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Yes	3c	1,392$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.74	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d20…76c2backed Yes	1c	1,284$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes	5c	1,276$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.65	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e6e…489bbacked Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	1c	1,230$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed Yes	1c	1,179$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	4c	1,173$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	5c	1,170$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	4c	1,159$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fd…434abacked Yes	4c	1,062$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	1c	1,061$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf275…01cbbacked Yes	4c	1,059$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa3…b307backed Yes	6c	1,033$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	1,002$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	5c	997.12$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.51	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	4c	995.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a13…f484backed Yes	3c	944.8$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd21…3c10backed Yes	2c	929.81$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	1c	916.07$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ce6…de1fbacked Yes	2c	912.52$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.71	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34aa…980abacked Yes	5c	870.43$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.34	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x024b…85cabacked Yes	6c	833.05$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.72	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes	5c	811.6$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	4c	800$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event