Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1ceba14c1ab80a63be4bb6345ee7f091a51f60a51b69e10b19c23d7d6af64cef

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,134,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $683,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,134,856 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	1c	33,495$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8e…c5d7backed Yes	0c	31,077$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ab…d82fbacked Yes	1c	28,004$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	24,900$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.68	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	24,794$976 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$975.98	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	2c	20,458$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.83	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	17,378$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.57	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	14,000$2,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,968.39	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	13,161$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.9	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	13,026$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.59	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	12,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	1c	10,390$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.34	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x03cc…29fabacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce4…921bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb60…3ce8backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+72.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	9,984$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.06	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6725…e08fbacked Yes	1c	9,885$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.88	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	7c	9,786$676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.69	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	8,675$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,547$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.35	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	8,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	7,656$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.39	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	12c	7,265$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.27	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	7,202$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.86	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	17c	7,132$1,246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,246.38	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	1c	6,806$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.28	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	6,737$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.79	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	8c	6,671$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	6,394$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.4	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5b1…a338backed Yes	2c	6,313$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-64%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	6,251$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.13	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	6,097$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.84	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	5,461$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.85	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	2c	4,839$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	4,350$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.45	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	4,345$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.09	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,295$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.35	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	6c	4,284$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.02	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	10c	4,282$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429.4	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	4,225$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.56	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0333…7d70backed Yes	1c	4,158$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.43	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	7c	4,121$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.76	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	7c	4,079$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.26	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	4,068$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.65	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,907$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.93	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	3c	3,668$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.24	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	1c	3,623$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	3,500$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	3,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	14c	3,294$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.29	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	2c	3,168$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.14	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	3c	2,929$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.72	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	2c	2,896$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3de9…ed09backed Yes	3c	2,809$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.92	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd109…94f9backed No	76c	2,803$2,122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$681.04	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc81c…8974backed Yes	24c	2,800$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	13c	2,691$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.49	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	16c	2,681$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.51	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62d2…9355backed Yes	2c	2,650$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	2,650$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.87	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	2c	2,548$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.44	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	3c	2,547$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.17	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,533$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.44	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	2c	2,500$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.43	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	3c	2,337$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.84	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c65…0f31backed Yes	1c	2,319$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.01	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	2,285$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.34	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc710…f2aebacked Yes	17c	2,158$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.63	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	24c	2,041$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.63	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	5c	1,985$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.85	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	1,945$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.14	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	1,858$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	1,854$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.96	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes	2c	1,851$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	7c	1,742$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.31	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	2c	1,725$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8aa…e28ebacked No	75c	1,703$1,282 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$420.64	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa32c…fa98backed No	76c	1,703$1,287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$415.53	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc46…5157backed Yes	25c	1,700$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf874…1ee0backed Yes	24c	1,700$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	20c	1,617$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.88	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes	2c	1,601$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.56	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	1,527$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	7c	1,509$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.3	69	20.3%14 W · 55 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+207.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x542f…58a1backed Yes	1c	1,488$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-80.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3cf…95e9backed Yes	2c	1,473$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	67	20.9%14 W · 53 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	3c	1,463$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	20c	1,455$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.38	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	79c	1,426$1,129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.15	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e3…f87cbacked Yes	2c	1,421$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.86	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes	2c	1,413$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	1c	1,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,386$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	3c	1,369$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb855…3332backed Yes	10c	1,337$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	75c	1,315$981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.48	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd41d…4cf6backed Yes	2c	1,307$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.78	133	21.8%29 W · 104 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,285$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event