Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ee160aa4bf0f1304595a4fadfc3dcb9abd204bd2ae1469d3d20f000085136e

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $424,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $75,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,803 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	104,381$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.1	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	21,636$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x948d…d6a8backed Yes	0c	15,636$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,088$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.07	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	1c	8,819$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.35	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	7,258$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.76	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	6,336$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.9	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	2c	6,132$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.41	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes	1c	5,064$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.05	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	4,863$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.99	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	2c	4,800$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	4,505$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.55	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	4,444$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.31	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes	1c	4,002$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.82	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	0c	3,888$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.73	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	0c	3,786$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	3,762$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.81	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	3,747$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x025f…6771backed Yes	1c	3,424$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	3,190$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	3,057$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.13	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57a7…3becbacked Yes	1c	2,856$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	2c	2,737$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.44	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,653$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,446$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f4…150abacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ca8…18c7backed Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	+2.3wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+180.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd13e…ca33backed Yes	1c	1,497$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	1,322$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	1c	1,274$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	1,242$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8848…b9e2backed Yes	3c	1,195$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4626…f192backed Yes	2c	1,181$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ccb…05a2backed Yes	1c	1,099$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes	2c	714.63$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09f6…750fbacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	3c	400.23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event