Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7789f75405a56d8ce8412ba1a48b59ef102d3a61a23054ab59d053d6921e8e4b

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,402,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $823,281

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,402,435 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 539 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	65,297$4,530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,530.18	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	59,805$3,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,333.05	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	50,603$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.8	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	5c	28,937$1,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,442	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	15,746$1,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120.56	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	1c	14,446$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.58	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	2c	13,391$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.34	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	13,333$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.99	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	3c	13,300$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.5	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	10c	11,518$1,173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,173.42	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	9c	10,194$878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$878.01	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab0c…f015backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	4c	10,000$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	3c	9,326$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.84	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	9,314$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.84	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	6c	8,963$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.04	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	8,229$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.59	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	8,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	7,161$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	7,133$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.43	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d77…ebf7backed Yes	15c	7,059$1,087 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,087.23	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	8c	6,622$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	10c	6,614$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.27	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3538…c269backed Yes	10c	6,569$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$683.78	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	1c	5,856$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.99	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae24…c4c8backed Yes	16c	5,776$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$904.52	25	40%10 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,732$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.8	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	5,700$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.52	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	18c	5,647$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.99	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8519…cb6cbacked Yes	1c	5,520$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.46	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	22cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	9c	5,174$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.68	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	9c	5,138$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.99	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	5,114$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.76	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	3c	5,091$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ad…da5dbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1116…5ca3backed Yes	20c	4,915$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2003…54c1backed Yes	2c	4,861$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	4,695$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.14	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	4,500$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.5	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	4,462$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.66	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	14c	4,353$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.67	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	9c	4,311$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.68	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	4,224$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.69	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	8c	4,133$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.25	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	18c	4,111$748 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$748.41	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	4,111$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.47	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	7c	4,093$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.88	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	3,914$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	3,816$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.86	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…ec87backed Yes	2c	3,714$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.73	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	3,679$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.28	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	15c	3,613$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.27	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1e…c419backed Yes	11c	3,604$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	11c	3,500$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18ac…5687backed Yes	4c	3,500$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc832…ed2bbacked Yes	10c	3,370$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.49	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	17c	3,300$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	11c	3,286$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.74	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	10c	3,225$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.9	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8a…7659backed Yes	1c	3,068$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	4c	3,000$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,992$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	14c	2,867$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.45	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	9c	2,827$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.38	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	13c	2,827$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.39	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	20c	2,806$551 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550.82	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes	7c	2,688$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.79	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,600$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.2	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aea…8951backed Yes	15c	2,534$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.62	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	2,508$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$326.21	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	2,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	12c	2,500$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.31	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	3c	2,499$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.76	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	2,492$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.26	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	2c	2,372$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.58	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	2,349$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	2,347$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	8c	2,330$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.35	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	9c	2,300$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.9	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	2,264$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.22	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	2,224$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.04	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	2,220$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.16	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	2,200$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.6	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	5c	2,190$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.77	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	9c	2,041$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.89	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,032$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	10c	2,027$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.05	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	14c	2,000$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.51	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5320…f3b2backed Yes	10c	1,994$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.18	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…0ddabacked Yes	15c	1,968$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.69	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4626…f192backed Yes	12c	1,954$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.51	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6de…12f7backed Yes	1c	1,913$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes	4c	1,874$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.12	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-5.0wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x38e8…db25backed Yes	9c	1,827$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.76	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event