Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef1299d5c2697e3e8d7af37ae2cfd36f0eb10a5202010dd6b7c906c447503e7a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,064,179
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $607,810

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,064,179 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 534 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8593…8865backed Yes	0c	100,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	32,125$1,777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,777.47	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	11c	32,001$3,542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,541.74	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	15,910$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.8	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	14c	14,938$2,064 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,064.48	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	16c	12,129$1,898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,897.82	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe00b…baddbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,220$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.22	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	21c	9,786$2,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,047.45	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	9,644$1,844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,844.39	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	9,500$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	11c	9,326$1,036 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,036.06	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5852…d0cebacked Yes	27c	8,948$2,456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,456	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	8,420$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.9	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	8,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	4c	6,564$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.33	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	6,395$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	6,360$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.98	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	6,221$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	12c	6,169$728 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$727.95	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	6,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	14c	6,000$852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$852	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	5,236$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.88	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21dd…24a8backed Yes	5c	5,030$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.44	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	13c	4,633$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.2	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,301$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.54	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	11c	4,164$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.58	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0899…2bc6backed Yes	1c	4,153$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.47	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	16c	4,117$662 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.41	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	25c	4,020$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	17c	4,000$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	2c	4,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	11c	4,000$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	6c	3,985$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.35	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de9…ed09backed Yes	3c	3,803$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.92	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-59%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	3,792$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.79	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	3,737$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.8	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	13c	3,627$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.25	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	14c	3,543$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.26	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	20c	3,528$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$695.34	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	2c	3,399$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.89	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	76c	3,358$2,552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$806.09	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	8c	3,305$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.46	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	16c	3,248$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520.49	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	18c	3,222$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.36	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	13c	3,208$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.23	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	3,116$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.58	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	20c	3,109$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.5	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	2c	2,978$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.43	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	2,918$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.44	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	2,592$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.71	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	8c	2,501$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.29	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	2,500$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.43	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	2,444$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,381$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.05	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	7c	2,372$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.64	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16be…23d9backed Yes	5c	2,276$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.72	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	20c	2,244$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.56	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	2,196$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.21	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	7c	2,153$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.99	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	15c	2,036$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.7	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	13c	2,029$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.83	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	21c	2,025$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.43	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	2,005$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.84	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	12c	2,000$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.75	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	7c	1,938$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.42	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a2…f61fbacked Yes	12c	1,873$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.49	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	11c	1,870$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.51	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	23c	1,800$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.2	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	13c	1,800$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.13	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eca…4513backed Yes	6c	1,741$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-64.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59e…2b99backed Yes	25c	1,648$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.55	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x623b…3a8fbacked Yes	3c	1,628$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	8c	1,600$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.04	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	15c	1,587$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.65	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,584$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.58	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d1…2206backed Yes	12c	1,548$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.42	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	9c	1,528$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.18	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	26c	1,525$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.39	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	10c	1,525$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1e…c419backed Yes	7c	1,513$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,504$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.98	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	1c	1,500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	8c	1,494$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.64	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcde4…da33backed Yes	3c	1,491$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	1c	1,464$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.17	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes	15c	1,450$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.92	90	22.2%20 W · 70 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	1,429$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.11	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked No	78c	1,414$1,101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$312.96	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x804c…1658backed Yes	23c	1,401$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.48	103	21.4%22 W · 81 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	21c	1,388$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.93	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes	4c	1,380$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.68	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	7c	1,376$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	16c	1,363$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.18	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,300$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	20c	1,281$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.55	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event