Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f1516c99e9235d5f179aeaa1222ee950ac15ae614026773ec45332a233cc111

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,553,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,405,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,553,493 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,002 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	73c	29,564$21,704 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,860.21	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	8c	27,073$2,216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,856.64	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	23,774$2,911 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20,862.63	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	47c	18,891$8,820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,070.63	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	45c	11,735$5,234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,501.07	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	33c	11,518$3,828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,689.57	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc940…02d2backed Yes	9c	10,303$921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,382.22	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	12cpaid	+274.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	18c	9,326$1,657 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,669.44	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	42c	8,115$3,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,718.82	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	8,000$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,440	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	23c	7,994$1,873 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,121.21	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	18c	7,731$1,416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,315.07	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	47c	7,305$3,427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,877.86	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	34c	7,292$2,483 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,808.99	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	7,138$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,535.69	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	15c	6,905$1,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,889.31	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	6,867$735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,131.87	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes	52c	6,705$3,478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,227.08	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	22c	6,560$1,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,098.21	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9abbbacked No	10c	6,236$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.68	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	21c	5,969$1,265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,703.29	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No	9c	5,796$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.49	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	7c	5,788$416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,371.95	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	5,600$4,461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,460.51	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	61c	5,576$3,429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,147.21	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	55c	5,360$2,968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,967.53	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	14c	5,142$735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,407.04	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82cf…0998backed No	7c	5,127$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.75	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+3.9wins	+0.21per pick	27cpaid	+81.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed No	1c	5,115$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.47	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	43c	4,953$2,114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,113.93	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	4,849$319 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,529.83	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	4,824$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,511.68	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	19c	4,711$885 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,825.7	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	16c	4,698$772 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,925.87	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	73c	4,684$3,436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,248.54	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d1…a249backed No	9c	4,500$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.3	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	+5.6wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	37c	4,499$1,644 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,855.1	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	4,432$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,182.81	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	54c	4,373$2,344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,029.44	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	16c	4,350$686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,663.58	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	4,291$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,026.35	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	27c	4,291$1,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,113.12	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc8…3558backed Yes	57c	4,200$2,394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,806.08	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	4,039$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,782.4	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked No	0c	4,006$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	11c	3,876$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,462.57	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	6c	3,807$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,597.08	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked Yes	74c	3,722$2,764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$958.2	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6388…7622backed Yes	13c	3,701$499 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,202.38	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	43c	3,700$1,585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,114.59	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b36…92b1backed Yes	11c	3,652$399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,252.33	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+128.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9aad…baeebacked No	0c	3,602$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed No	0c	3,555$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes	38c	3,500$1,325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,175.39	107	27.1%29 W · 78 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	9c	3,366$287 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,079.14	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	3,331$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,110.71	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes	79c	3,310$2,617 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$692.39	32	65.6%21 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed No	19c	3,203$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610	35	54.3%19 W · 16 L	+4.9wins	+0.14per pick	40cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	61c	3,178$1,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,923.7	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	20c	3,063$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,462.87	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	3,000$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,820.19	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,789.93	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	69c	2,987$2,048 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,048.39	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d5c…657ebacked No	56c	2,976$1,659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,659	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-47%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	11c	2,957$324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,633.36	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	32c	2,930$927 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,003.23	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	14c	2,903$415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,487.89	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	17c	2,892$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.77	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	7c	2,862$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,665.14	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	74c	2,808$2,083 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$724.89	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	76c	2,750$2,097 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$652.58	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	2,749$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,562.44	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e36…c05cbacked Yes	79c	2,700$2,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.12	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.4wins	+0.20per pick	51cpaid	+71%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae24…c4c8backed Yes	45c	2,661$1,202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,458.99	25	40%10 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf386…9b3fbacked Yes	76c	2,649$2,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$634.2	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af3…2ddcbacked Yes	17c	2,589$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,149.1	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	2,567$331 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,235.46	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	8c	2,500$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,309.33	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	15c	2,480$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,100.36	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb6…5ba8backed No	1c	2,472$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	52c	2,459$1,271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,188.36	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes	8c	2,435$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,244.66	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	18c	2,433$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,006.51	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	6c	2,419$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,270.06	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…0fa8backed Yes	49c	2,415$1,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,239.72	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	22c	2,400$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,876.45	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	13c	2,362$303 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,059.65	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	40c	2,350$935 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,415.56	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No	1c	2,301$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.31	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	21c	2,277$468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,808.68	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073b…bdbdbacked No	43c	2,200$946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$946	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	7c	2,182$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,034.27	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked No	2c	2,050$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.35	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	9c	2,026$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,847.25	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	8c	2,024$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,870.83	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	2,020$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,938.95	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	9c	2,010$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,836.83	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	14c	2,000$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,720	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	8c	2,000$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,849.99	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fae…6a71backed Yes	42c	2,000$836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,164.09	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event