Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3188037e2d895439773a702d6b013428b781e02af9023aaf48020b886e2a0c7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $398,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $398,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 0c | 76,874$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.48 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 0.4%1 W · 273 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +257.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 17,207$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 1c | 12,593$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.8 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes | 0c | 11,727$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…853dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes | 1c | 8,559$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 67 | 6%4 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 1c | 8,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 7,142$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.91 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 6,710$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 6,505$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 0c | 5,993$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5529backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 4,760$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 211 | 4.7%10 W · 201 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,725$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3d…e051backed Yes | 1c | 4,079$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 3,664$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 0c | 3,621$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,420$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 479 | 8.6%41 W · 438 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,925$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 730 | 4.5%33 W · 697 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6529backed Yes | 2c | 2,525$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,473$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes | 1c | 2,453$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 100 | 7%7 W · 93 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 1c | 2,281$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad2…e985backed Yes | 1c | 2,245$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 148 | 8.8%13 W · 135 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa90…b224backed Yes | 1c | 2,039$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,967$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…10d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,745$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 2c | 1,611$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 1,557$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 279 | 4.7%13 W · 266 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ca33backed Yes | 1c | 1,456$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a7…3becbacked Yes | 1c | 1,443$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 1c | 1,430$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,415$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e3…3a62backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025f…6771backed Yes | 2c | 1,099$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 815.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 398 | 6.8%27 W · 371 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 799.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…a338backed Yes | 2c | 615.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 364 | 4.7%17 W · 347 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.