Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d6e6494ea7b1062bcecafda77c2bf46b18b6ec41f9d82fddc1722a210ad3637

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,175,663
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $427,608

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,175,663 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	118,568$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$952.99	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43ad…da5dbacked Yes	0c	29,000$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	27,927$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.93	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	26,775$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.77	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a4e…a184backed Yes	0c	22,360$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.72	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	20,878$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.04	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20fe…7968backed Yes	1c	12,771$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.36	88	19.3%17 W · 71 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	12,500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	1c	12,364$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	4c	12,067$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.09	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	11,518$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.38	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	10,907$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.53	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	10,100$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	10,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	10,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	9,909$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.32	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	9,326$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.5	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	0c	9,215$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.96	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	2c	9,100$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	2c	8,432$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.03	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	8,224$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.94	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	8,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	7,217$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1e…c419backed Yes	10c	7,115$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.67	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	7,098$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.59	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	7,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	7,000$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.99	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc832…ed2bbacked Yes	3c	6,849$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	6,725$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.07	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1116…5ca3backed Yes	5c	6,285$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8755…e152backed Yes	0c	6,061$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	6,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3e…c728backed Yes	0c	5,800$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.79	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	4c	5,728$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.85	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	0c	5,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	2c	5,176$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.07	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d77…ebf7backed Yes	11c	5,000$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.99	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	4,980$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.54	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28aa…413abacked Yes	1c	4,850$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.63	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	4,748$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.12	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	4,291$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.91	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,184$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.54	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c65…0f31backed Yes	0c	4,005$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	4,000$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	3,902$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.97	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4626…f192backed Yes	2c	3,839$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	7c	3,766$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.1	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	6c	3,721$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.99	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67a7…1facbacked Yes	14c	3,510$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.62	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	9c	3,500$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa95b…6927backed Yes	9c	3,451$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	3,385$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.7	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	13c	3,300$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$429	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	3,183$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca1…94f8backed Yes	11c	3,125$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.69	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	3,053$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.58	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	3,003$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.69	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc710…f2aebacked Yes	1c	3,001$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	1c	3,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.74	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd690…40e5backed Yes	0c	2,972$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	9c	2,891$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes	1c	2,890$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	1c	2,877$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	1c	2,850$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	1c	2,823$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.49	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	7c	2,800$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…64f4backed Yes	10c	2,773$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.54	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	2,760$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.22	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	2,724$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.34	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	12c	2,685$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	2,645$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.9	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	1c	2,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	2,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	1c	2,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf93…e9babacked Yes	4c	2,453$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	8c	2,423$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.56	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	2,137$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.82	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	2,080$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.81	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	14c	2,074$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes	2c	2,025$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	11c	2,015$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.14	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10bc…76bebacked Yes	8c	1,903$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.01	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-60%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	1,896$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.19	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	10c	1,766$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.47	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes	10c	1,722$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.4	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes	3c	1,633$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.69	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f8e…c5d7backed Yes	1c	1,605$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	11c	1,600$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.9	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed Yes	3c	1,591$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.9	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	1,590$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked Yes	1c	1,555$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	4c	1,530$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.6	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0d…b6cabacked Yes	13c	1,520$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d23…e70dbacked Yes	1c	1,410$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ccb…05a2backed Yes	1c	1,377$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	2c	1,341$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.79	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event