Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x474115dadcdb27d5f3bb27e1948f2b24e504680486cd2fdde4c398e51a020230

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $550,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $138,900

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $550,866 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	143,578$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.55	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	140,922$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.93	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,334$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	8,807$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.69	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	0c	8,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	3c	7,661$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.23	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	5,599$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	1c	5,350$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.36	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	4,615$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.54	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,526$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.66	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	4,116$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.29	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	4,112$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.14	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	4,035$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	1c	3,700$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	3,221$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.33	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74a9…7187backed Yes	4c	3,116$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	3c	2,937$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.62	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes	1c	2,556$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.3	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	2c	2,300$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,297$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	3c	2,284$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.12	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,226$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.24	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	5c	2,200$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	2,103$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.98	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes	1c	2,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x025f…6771backed Yes	2c	1,921$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.88	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	6c	1,623$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f4…150abacked Yes	1c	1,555$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	1c	1,429$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,366$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.24	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	3c	1,300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.4	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2265…4130backed Yes	2c	1,247$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xabd1…870ebacked Yes	2c	1,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-42%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	6c	1,164$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.59	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	1c	1,111$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.27	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	989$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	970.74$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.75	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	1c	920.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	846.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.38	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes	4c	821.33$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	799.52$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.34	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	700$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	691.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec4f…24cfbacked Yes	3c	658.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	639.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	3c	622.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	7c	615.64$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.21	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	3c	572.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes	3c	549.96$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57a7…3becbacked Yes	2c	541.53$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e4…29debacked Yes	4c	511.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.28per pick	12cpaid	+162.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4441…3551backed Yes	3c	449.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…7144backed Yes	2c	446.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	6c	400$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b85…fbb7backed Yes	4c	262$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event