Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab9308773983d4447089e892a76995a82f94e5a25a74cff15b0352ead627fc10

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $554,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $141,973

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $554,468 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	129,294$484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$484.18	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	102,837$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.36	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc43…3666backed Yes	0c	19,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43ad…da5dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	4c	8,877$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.55	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c00…9227backed Yes	0c	8,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	7,958$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.79	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	6,916$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	6,763$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.74	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,317$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.87	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	4,717$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.62	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	4,458$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.62	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89c6…6f63backed Yes	3c	3,705$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.03	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	3,397$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.54	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94c3…94abbacked Yes	3c	3,105$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.85	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	3,094$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.8	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	3c	2,762$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.34	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	6c	2,648$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c49…9525backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc9…1938backed Yes	5c	1,920$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,902$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.87	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	2c	1,900$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,864$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.56	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes	2c	1,837$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.37	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,723$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.39	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	3c	1,686$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.94	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	1,661$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.97	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x025f…6771backed Yes	3c	1,523$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,509$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	2c	1,496$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.4	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	1,325$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	1,303$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.91	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	4c	1,300$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	2c	1,300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.71	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	8c	1,262$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes	1c	1,132$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.57	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a0e…6369backed Yes	10c	1,027$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	1,003$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	1c	1,002$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	1,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	4c	999.98$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	2c	999.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	3c	999.65$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.65	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	990.7$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	3c	853.65$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2265…4130backed Yes	2c	836.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes	6c	832.69$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.29	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd9…1dc7backed Yes	4c	803.15$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b9…e1d7backed Yes	3c	788.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	788.01$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.86	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	2c	729.92$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.71	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec1…2a1dbacked Yes	7c	727.9$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	3c	678.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes	4c	669.53$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-28%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	608.35$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.87	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	8c	600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.98	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x799e…2d5cbacked Yes	4c	564.69$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	550.39$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb364…d7a3backed Yes	2c	544.21$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec4f…24cfbacked Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes	4c	499.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	116	18.1%21 W · 95 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	483.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958e…e9dfbacked Yes	2c	474.07$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f3…ebbbbacked Yes	3c	448.28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1621…52a9backed Yes	7c	447.01$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x197d…77ddbacked Yes	3c	427$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4441…3551backed Yes	5c	399.97$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	382.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf787…64f4backed Yes	3c	317.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ad…872bbacked Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	8c	299.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4dc…cc18backed Yes	5c	229.17$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3382…8a35backed Yes	9c	219.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2816…a384backed Yes	6c	199.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	178.46$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fd1…babcbacked Yes	8c	122.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8848…b9e2backed Yes	10c	99.01$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event