Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a0c2cff156ee4e8e53e2bdb2114bbcc70fac1048b8b16951e2e392478a86172

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,239,522
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $449,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,239,522 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 428 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	85,018$1,447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,446.76	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	75,193$1,184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,183.99	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	32,219$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.22	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	19,636$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.07	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	17,534$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.26	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	16,855$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	14,811$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.88	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	1c	13,391$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.27	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	11,845$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.33	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	3c	11,595$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.61	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	11,518$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.48	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	5c	11,335$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.79	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	9,385$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.09	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	9,326$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.71	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	9,300$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.91	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	8,537$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.63	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	8,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	2c	7,545$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.06	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	8c	7,336$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.87	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,306$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.35	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d77…ebf7backed Yes	16c	7,091$1,126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,126.31	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	2c	7,007$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.53	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	3c	7,000$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.95	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	5c	6,171$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ad…da5dbacked Yes	2c	6,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	2c	5,977$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.69	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes	2c	5,515$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,078$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.41	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	4c	5,000$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	6c	5,000$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.14	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	3c	4,744$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.16	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	6c	4,571$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d9…e416backed Yes	2c	4,200$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	4,146$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.14	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	1c	4,144$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.48	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1116…5ca3backed Yes	7c	4,123$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78cf…ec87backed Yes	1c	4,099$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	4,064$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.6	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	7c	3,999$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.9	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	3c	3,951$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f88…d295backed Yes	11c	3,914$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.96	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+37.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	6c	3,799$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.85	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	3c	3,793$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.89	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	3,555$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.41	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	3,520$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.4	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	3c	3,504$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.1	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	12c	3,500$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3083…f85cbacked Yes	14c	3,484$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.51	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.16per pick	25cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	3,400$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.6	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	16c	3,350$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	3,278$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.61	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	9c	3,228$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.29	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f92…5c90backed Yes	2c	3,207$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.68	77	9.1%7 W · 70 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed Yes	1c	3,193$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf1e…c419backed Yes	9c	3,181$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a3…d653backed Yes	2c	3,155$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.85	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	3,075$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.7	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	8c	3,048$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.86	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	3,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	2,808$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.84	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	2,699$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,629$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.56	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	2,518$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.56	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	2,513$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	10c	2,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8755…e152backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	3c	2,500$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.5	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7268…0b00backed Yes	1c	2,455$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,434$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.6	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0333…7d70backed Yes	1c	2,400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3e…c728backed Yes	1c	2,283$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.93	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4626…f192backed Yes	4c	2,138$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	14c	2,125$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda0f…754bbacked Yes	2c	2,036$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	42	21.4%9 W · 33 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	2,025$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	10c	2,000$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.75	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	2,000$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes	9c	2,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	2,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.7	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	12c	2,000$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.99	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b96…9af3backed Yes	1c	1,929$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	10c	1,919$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.5	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	9c	1,856$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.97	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	5c	1,837$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c65…0f31backed Yes	2c	1,808$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.74	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf93…e9babacked Yes	6c	1,807$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	7c	1,714$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.58	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	3c	1,654$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.37	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	5c	1,622$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.6	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	1c	1,598$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	7c	1,508$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	4c	1,500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…0fa8backed Yes	11c	1,498$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.8	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9bf…4a80backed Yes	9c	1,446$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.22	43	14%6 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…54b3backed Yes	7c	1,396$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event