Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c8f5b40bbfb4162d14b15aedf52f3b0a92a78707d154288d9849bdc7b91d2c2

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,200,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $513,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,200,212 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 218 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	148,478$709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.52	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7580…853dbacked Yes	0c	55,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	51,606$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.61	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	42,385$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.38	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	0c	37,205$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	25,222$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	24,886$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.51	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	11c	19,776$2,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,217.65	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	15,846$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	14,805$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.81	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	13,955$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes	0c	13,795$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	24	0%0 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	0c	13,055$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	11,900$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	10,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	10,399$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.76	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	10,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,889$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.39	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	4c	8,463$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.8	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0333…7d70backed Yes	0c	8,350$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	21cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	8,312$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.66	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	7,851$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.03	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	0c	7,667$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	7,250$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	1c	6,890$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	7c	6,427$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.37	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28aa…413abacked Yes	0c	6,088$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	5,965$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.61	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6549…eb80backed Yes	4c	5,625$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.48	96	11.5%11 W · 85 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	7c	5,000$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	0c	4,949$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.23	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	8c	4,881$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	4,800$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.01	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	11c	4,600$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	4,421$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.54	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd1…53dabacked Yes	0c	4,167$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+87.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	3,643$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.47	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	3,524$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf1e…c419backed Yes	6c	3,429$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	3,340$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	6c	3,037$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.65	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	3,021$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.42	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	5c	3,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	8c	3,000$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.79	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes	1c	2,763$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	1c	2,736$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa95b…6927backed Yes	8c	2,607$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	6c	2,501$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.12	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	1c	2,500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.81	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	2,481$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	9c	2,158$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.66	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4626…f192backed Yes	3c	2,074$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.06	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	2,058$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.05	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	2,002$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.42	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,975$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.53	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	10c	1,949$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.8	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca1…94f8backed Yes	8c	1,918$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.9	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	11c	1,821$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	1,786$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	1c	1,722$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.77	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	12c	1,695$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01fe…79f4backed Yes	2c	1,676$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89c6…6f63backed Yes	9c	1,667$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.03	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	1,650$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.35	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66d8…8258backed Yes	4c	1,634$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.01	55	41.8%23 W · 32 L	+7.1wins	+0.13per pick	29cpaid	+68.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	5c	1,600$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed Yes	2c	1,372$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.63	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3703…f61fbacked Yes	2c	1,254$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+126.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+97.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb126…8a5abacked Yes	8c	1,231$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Yes	2c	1,221$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	231	16.9%39 W · 192 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	11c	1,216$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.9	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…341cbacked Yes	7c	1,206$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.29	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	1,200$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.7	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	1c	1,137$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	1,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.07	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	8c	1,097$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.43	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc579…21cdbacked Yes	13c	1,077$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	9c	1,075$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.75	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b96…9af3backed Yes	2c	1,052$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes	8c	1,004$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.4	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	999.99$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	10c	999.97$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe7…4362backed Yes	11c	999.97$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	90	15.6%14 W · 76 L	-4.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	8c	999.96$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ed…7b21backed Yes	11c	909.2$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x00e0…8a94backed Yes	12c	853.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+6.5wins	+0.18per pick	47cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3d44…c77ebacked Yes	7c	851.18$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	835$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.05	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aad…3a85backed Yes	7c	821.34$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.49	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d7…ecd5backed Yes	12c	803.78$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ca9…fc73backed Yes	9c	800$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event