TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,151,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$605,983

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,151,832 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes1c44,244$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230210%0 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c41,737$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.441,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c35,722$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.521,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes0c31,135$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.916417.2%11 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes0c28,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99b3…56eebacked Yes0c23,026$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-87.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c21,139$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.141290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c20,562$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.561360.7%1 W · 135 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+635.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf4…a4debacked Yes0c19,593$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.59240%0 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…7a65backed Yes1c14,559$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c13,334$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.332740.4%1 W · 273 L+0.7wins0.00per pick0cpaid+257.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa38a…0541backed Yes0c12,724$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cea…f8dfbacked Yes0c12,672$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes0c12,496$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.266016.7%10 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fe…66f5backed Yes0c11,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…ec87backed Yes1c9,965$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes0c9,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c8,770$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.231868.6%16 W · 170 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes0c8,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c7,846$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.082,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc77c…1f1bbacked Yes0c7,504$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1280%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes0c7,366$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0521818.3%40 W · 178 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes0c7,340$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c7,198$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes0c7,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4523…9c64backed Yes0c6,228$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-76.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes2c6,068$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c5,449$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.324916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c5,363$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes0c5,213$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.272658.7%23 W · 242 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c0…547ebacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-56.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes0c5,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes1c4,530$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.122359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c4,282$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.842114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes2c3,925$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.927966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c3,683$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.277304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,409$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.416915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes2c3,162$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed Yes1c3,038$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.884022.5%9 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc15a…4514backed Yes1c2,967$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+253.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa355…99dabacked Yes1c2,905$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a26…1b7dbacked Yes0c2,872$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9da8…4dd2backed Yes0c2,614$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121513.3%2 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+452.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a0c…133dbacked Yes1c2,523$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes1c2,401$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes1c2,294$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.911488.8%13 W · 135 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e2…b92cbacked Yes0c2,004$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d38…d383backed Yes1c2,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c78…3846backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes2c2,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4215812%19 W · 139 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c1,895$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.261,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf887…92acbacked Yes2c1,871$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77e3…06a9backed Yes1c1,839$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes1c1,767$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.534211.9%5 W · 37 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+55.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed Yes1c1,759$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15313.2%1 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes1c1,722$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.33512%1 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+107.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4931…6396backed Yes1c1,674$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes1c1,669$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4910715.9%17 W · 90 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…f3c9backed Yes1c1,431$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101020%2 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes1c1,345$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021948.8%17 W · 177 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Yes2c1,280$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20666.1%4 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid-74.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes1c1,050$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9b…67e6backed Yes1c1,046$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93e…7195backed Yes1c1,006$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102619.2%5 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+48.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…ca30backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35a…56debacked Yes1c817.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+91.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abe…488dbacked Yes2c779.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-82.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa3…b307backed Yes2c759.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.29160%0 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x467e…7871backed Yes1c750$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes2c712.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0360127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5824…000ebacked Yes2c619.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+85.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c407.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.744345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.