TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe7c6…5529

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST313.2%1 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 700-719 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+769.6%+$115.43
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2416.7%4 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$74
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+132.5%+$198.77
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$522
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$157.08
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$361.63
All 24 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$233.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.