Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894a26116ec1e467d89955a029545e090bbc38713351e21971da5c1572056c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,833,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,590,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,833,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,366 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5554…33cebacked Yes | 15c | 373,719$56,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,314.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302d…6d6fbacked Yes | 7c | 217,655$14,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,580.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 11c | 181,076$19,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,090.05 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 22c | 168,515$37,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,913.13 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…f23ebacked No | 75c | 135,440$101,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,800.62 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 8c | 134,780$11,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,378.99 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 18c | 123,222$22,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,063.84 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 11c | 80,994$8,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,708.93 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 80c | 79,763$63,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,323.33 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…34c3backed Yes | 19c | 75,124$14,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,456.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed No | 72c | 70,039$50,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,647.08 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Yes | 7c | 68,347$4,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,505.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…ae6cbacked Yes | 20c | 67,541$13,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,324.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 65c | 60,026$38,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,253.01 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…94d0backed Yes | 10c | 58,524$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,705.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked No | 52c | 57,356$29,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,370.1 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 55,556$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.56 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc266…2f2fbacked Yes | 9c | 52,856$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 7c | 52,668$3,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,685.04 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 11c | 50,438$5,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,656.55 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 30c | 49,446$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 2c | 48,434$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.14 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 72c | 47,526$34,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,396.75 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…c087backed Yes | 10c | 45,355$4,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,534.35 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 16c | 45,329$7,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,056.11 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 17c | 44,539$7,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,761.09 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec1f…d325backed Yes | 45c | 42,878$19,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,373.18 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…1c56backed Yes | 11c | 42,600$4,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,895.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…83d7backed Yes | 10c | 40,100$4,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,061.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053d…caedbacked No | 73c | 37,958$27,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,278.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 8c | 37,262$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.93 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 7c | 36,623$2,734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,734.37 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes | 35c | 35,611$12,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,533.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…1fcabacked No | 80c | 35,457$28,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,115.49 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 25c | 35,328$8,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,795.46 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 13c | 34,610$4,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,592.07 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 5c | 32,557$1,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.29 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 27c | 32,193$8,756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,756.49 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 22c | 29,865$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,499.99 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes | 7c | 29,818$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.7 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes | 25c | 29,252$7,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,294.39 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.39per pick | 15cpaid | +308.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed No | 67c | 29,162$19,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,747.87 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 17c | 28,507$4,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,903.13 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 66c | 27,785$18,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,322.21 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf78…a054backed Yes | 9c | 27,775$2,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 11cpaid | +227.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 17c | 27,125$4,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,707.49 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 77c | 26,336$20,162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,173.71 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed Yes | 7c | 25,000$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.88 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…2121backed Yes | 10c | 23,907$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9571backed Yes | 4c | 23,890$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 25c | 23,718$5,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,869.07 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 9c | 23,057$2,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,019.57 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 64c | 22,726$14,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,252.95 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 6c | 22,542$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.95 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 5c | 22,021$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.03 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…bfafbacked No | 57c | 20,600$11,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,882.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +123%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 23c | 20,514$4,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,714.18 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 32c | 20,423$6,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,470.46 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…ac19backed Yes | 2c | 20,259$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.56 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 50c | 20,000$9,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,020 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 10c | 19,875$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.11 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 79c | 19,677$15,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,065.34 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a0…1b3cbacked Yes | 5c | 19,541$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 30c | 19,097$5,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,750 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 59c | 18,979$11,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,826.44 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 77c | 18,634$14,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,248.96 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…6f11backed No | 78c | 18,610$14,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,169.88 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes | 10c | 18,264$1,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,904 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…9314backed No | 77c | 18,057$13,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,112.3 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 37c | 17,964$6,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,727.95 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 22c | 17,691$3,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,911.95 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…7ef7backed Yes | 15c | 17,504$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 14c | 17,320$2,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,349.42 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 14c | 16,838$2,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.4 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…454fbacked Yes | 6c | 16,094$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.07 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…a882backed No | 77c | 15,958$12,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,634.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed Yes | 5c | 15,443$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 12c | 15,400$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.89 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 79c | 14,800$11,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,087.56 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 23c | 14,734$3,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,397.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 21c | 14,337$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.78 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368b…2458backed No | 73c | 13,935$10,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,721.98 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…c55bbacked No | 80c | 13,557$10,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,744.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 32c | 13,415$4,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,085.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 12c | 13,196$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.08 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 69c | 13,188$9,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,026.27 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…eaa9backed No | 78c | 13,095$10,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a55…1d25backed No | 50c | 13,000$6,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,533.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 40c | 12,948$5,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,136.76 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 55c | 12,759$7,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,738.79 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9004…3932backed Yes | 6c | 12,731$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…e049backed Yes | 5c | 12,457$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.31 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed Yes | 2c | 12,250$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.28 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…ac3abacked Yes | 8c | 12,100$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…acbebacked Yes | 2c | 12,099$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 9c | 12,075$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.95 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 30c | 11,975$3,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,547.92 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 7c | 11,706$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 48c | 11,659$5,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,062.67 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 79c | 11,652$9,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479.62 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.