Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d52ce82886ba5ed34d396999b2afbb193d22cf1c5f791b5b4efdf1a094f410c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $763,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $825,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 588 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked No | 0c | 57,837$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.78 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 17c | 30,933$5,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,310 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 76c | 22,925$17,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,542.15 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x046b…1868backed No | 1c | 22,491$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 29c | 20,795$6,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,020.97 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 25c | 19,189$4,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,834.08 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…9895backed No | 1c | 15,826$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 9,310$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.69 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 17c | 9,082$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.73 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 38c | 7,999$3,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,022.22 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…9dcabacked No | 29c | 7,992$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.73 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed Yes | 65c | 7,216$4,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.36 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96cd…f6eabacked No | 27c | 7,112$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed No | 8c | 6,589$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 70 | 27.1%19 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…a504backed No | 49c | 5,122$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a2…2b21backed No | 2c | 5,033$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 34c | 5,000$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700.82 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1a…5c0bbacked Yes | 62c | 4,843$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 15c | 4,537$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.91 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 62c | 4,407$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.99 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…64b0backed Yes | 80c | 4,392$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 52c | 4,358$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.37 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…33c0backed No | 37c | 4,278$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.3 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…566dbacked Yes | 66c | 4,167$2,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.73 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 32cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 41c | 4,153$1,682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,682.27 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81dd…5f71backed No | 32c | 3,900$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed No | 63c | 3,856$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 50c | 3,530$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.92 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 25c | 3,484$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.82 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 73c | 3,322$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.93 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 63c | 3,204$2,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +804.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 39c | 3,183$1,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.84 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 32c | 3,136$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.94 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked No | 33c | 3,109$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.37 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 3,066$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 3c | 3,065$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…7458backed No | 1c | 2,972$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 2,749$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.01 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 67c | 2,636$1,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.23 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 2c | 2,500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…333dbacked Yes | 43c | 2,323$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.15 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed No | 57c | 2,145$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 52c | 2,052$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.95 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…3f04backed No | 19c | 2,029$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.66 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 21c | 2,020$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.4 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 2,006$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 18c | 2,000$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc9…489abacked No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,983$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.12 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 15c | 1,865$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.71 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Yes | 65c | 1,779$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.71 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 79c | 1,679$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.97 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 2c | 1,625$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a4c3backed Yes | 59c | 1,559$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 18c | 1,525$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.14 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…2515backed Yes | 66c | 1,524$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 40c | 1,507$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.08 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 63c | 1,500$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.49 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce85…ccd7backed No | 3c | 1,492$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0f…859abacked No | 14c | 1,488$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d90…50ecbacked No | 2c | 1,485$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41b…2771backed No | 2c | 1,465$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked Yes | 64c | 1,458$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.95 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 2c | 1,362$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 48c | 1,350$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.09 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 1,341$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.24 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 11c | 1,321$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.91 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 6c | 1,283$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 57c | 1,270$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 39c | 1,267$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.69 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 70c | 1,249$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.53 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 1,226$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.36 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 1,219$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 19c | 1,205$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.75 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 10c | 1,200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.4 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…80aebacked No | 21c | 1,200$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 5c | 1,182$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…fb9ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,166$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.08 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d2…75b6backed No | 55c | 1,139$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked No | 30c | 1,115$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63e3…f341backed Yes | 45c | 1,101$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.24 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked No | 39c | 1,100$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…abb9backed Yes | 66c | 1,095$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.05 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1f…222bbacked Yes | 66c | 1,062$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.06 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 3c | 1,054$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed Yes | 65c | 1,044$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.46 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed No | 38c | 1,040$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.89 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 61c | 1,019$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.28 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,018$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.28 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.45 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 58c | 1,000$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…0cf5backed No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…69e3backed No | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked No | 40c | 1,000$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd7…5666backed Yes | 73c | 963$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed No | 4c | 958.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.