Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7140ddb5ae5dc94d4553fb05d4600816f33ff024844cebe8326f4c41c4a1a47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,369,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,496,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,369,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,086 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked No | 0c | 207,275$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.28 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 44c | 84,069$37,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,727.37 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 44c | 68,344$29,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,406.02 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 48c | 52,990$25,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,308.78 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 55c | 52,908$28,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,870.82 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 46,597$35,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,410.65 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 73c | 44,845$32,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,145.35 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 22c | 41,045$8,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,945 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 53c | 39,812$20,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,860.05 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 39,706$31,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,581.59 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 24c | 39,318$9,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,566.83 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 56c | 37,533$21,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,365.14 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 12c | 36,420$4,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,349.03 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…be95backed Yes | 36c | 36,203$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,203.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…a779backed No | 32c | 35,478$11,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,409.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 45c | 34,736$15,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,618.8 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed No | 5c | 30,601$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed No | 48c | 29,665$14,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,237.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked No | 5c | 28,379$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.07 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96cd…f6eabacked No | 3c | 27,400$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xada7…f8d1backed No | 5c | 27,100$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 71c | 25,399$18,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,087.25 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x046b…1868backed No | 1c | 24,820$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 44c | 24,111$10,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,500 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 60c | 22,738$13,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,082.86 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 57c | 21,322$12,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,158.98 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 56c | 21,247$11,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,943.51 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 75c | 21,216$15,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,363 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 52c | 20,909$10,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,086.39 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 20,750$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked No | 34c | 20,404$6,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,871.28 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 68c | 19,553$13,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,200.03 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 57c | 18,165$10,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,323.94 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 18c | 17,518$3,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,114.48 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 72c | 17,383$12,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,789.43 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x653a…bb03backed No | 12c | 17,364$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 60c | 17,198$10,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,292.33 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed No | 2c | 16,423$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.97 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 54c | 15,148$8,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,116.64 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 39c | 15,000$5,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,205 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 53c | 14,982$7,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,952.11 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb31…0b4fbacked Yes | 45c | 13,774$6,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,560.14 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…6d6fbacked Yes | 23c | 13,677$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,472.15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 33c | 13,389$4,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,356.06 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 67c | 13,353$8,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,453.04 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…eaa9backed No | 38c | 13,220$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 49c | 13,000$6,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,393.16 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 46c | 12,954$5,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,944.7 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 51c | 12,077$6,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,903.73 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked No | 48c | 12,058$5,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,744.08 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked No | 14c | 11,919$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,683.95 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 68c | 11,857$8,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,735.68 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af7…9314backed Yes | 77c | 11,764$9,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,739.73 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 14c | 11,580$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.26 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 24c | 11,495$2,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,705.19 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed No | 7c | 11,438$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 62c | 11,174$6,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,269.97 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 33c | 11,161$3,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,669.28 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 69c | 11,091$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,390.84 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 21c | 11,013$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,673.75 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed No | 27c | 11,010$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 75c | 10,908$8,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.69 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed No | 57c | 10,786$6,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,167.1 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 64c | 10,752$6,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,858.74 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 67c | 10,668$7,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,498.38 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1a…5c0bbacked Yes | 34c | 10,649$3,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,024.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 0c | 10,425$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 41c | 10,147$4,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,112.64 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf3…b1babacked No | 11c | 9,831$1,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.63 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 64c | 9,380$6,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,042.96 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 57c | 9,377$5,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,371.97 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 49c | 9,319$4,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,560.82 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…dbb2backed No | 59c | 9,056$5,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,323.77 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed No | 53c | 8,926$4,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,720.34 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 67c | 8,781$5,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.76 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 45c | 8,738$3,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,914.02 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 5c | 8,732$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.6 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 8,722$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed No | 42c | 8,545$3,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,599.47 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 34c | 8,225$2,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,442.92 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 68c | 8,201$5,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,606.41 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…5efebacked No | 27c | 8,171$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 30c | 8,163$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,712.86 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…fe99backed Yes | 35c | 8,000$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,210 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 7,919$4,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,827.46 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed No | 5c | 7,848$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.22 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be6…1bdbbacked Yes | 61c | 7,644$4,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.47 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…1986backed Yes | 79c | 7,549$5,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.78 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 55c | 7,537$4,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,381.77 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 34c | 7,413$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,918.63 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 69c | 7,339$5,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.89 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…4a55backed No | 41c | 7,300$2,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,975.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 53c | 7,263$3,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,383.72 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 52c | 7,250$3,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,778.37 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 53c | 7,131$3,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,322.41 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed No | 41c | 7,061$2,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.56 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 79c | 7,030$5,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,532.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872e…e58fbacked Yes | 46c | 6,987$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,786.62 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…a504backed No | 67c | 6,929$4,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,660.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…5664backed Yes | 44c | 6,896$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,888.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.