Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b98500085731e81028ba9bfb823f58047b69c4d5fad6884e5ead2613cc8c54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $695,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $744,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $695,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked No | 0c | 300,621$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.62 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 10c | 42,435$4,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,375.74 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 0c | 40,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…9e9ebacked No | 1c | 22,450$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.45per pick | 24cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…2b06backed No | 7c | 13,000$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 4c | 12,779$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.03 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 0c | 10,420$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 0c | 7,803$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…f757backed No | 1c | 7,290$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x046b…1868backed No | 0c | 5,201$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 3c | 3,832$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 3c | 3,832$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed No | 5c | 3,737$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…9fc8backed No | 6c | 3,452$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.30per pick | 37cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 1c | 3,440$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96cd…f6eabacked No | 6c | 3,164$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…c211backed No | 1c | 3,028$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed No | 7c | 2,861$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.93 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 9c | 2,707$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.58 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa588…0336backed No | 7c | 1,251$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 6c | 1,022$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…0686backed No | 1c | 793.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed No | 12c | 739.63$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed No | 2c | 706.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f2…c203backed No | 8c | 687.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…04adbacked No | 13c | 614.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…9080backed No | 2c | 565.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…c9ecbacked No | 2c | 562.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfa…8d86backed No | 8c | 472.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…a54dbacked No | 4c | 393.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1e…08f0backed No | 11c | 302.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +301.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcf…324ebacked Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…2323backed No | 11c | 284.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…9b53backed No | 9c | 279.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked No | 6c | 241.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd61b…7337backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…bef3backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41b…2771backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…bc6abacked No | 13c | 157.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6024…dec6backed No | 8c | 137.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed No | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc88d…e436backed No | 31c | 98.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 68c | 91.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2156…5c9fbacked Yes | 70c | 69.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…7d4ebacked Yes | 76c | 65.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18c7…77b2backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…5488backed Yes | 80c | 34.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…2c91backed Yes | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.