Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3440de175b7f99510fea682a204bf51288537e5a247957afccd56ac653412742
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $376,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 30,001$3,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,034.59 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 4c | 30,000$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.12 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 13c | 11,892$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.51 | 125 | 44%55 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 7,639$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.16 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 13c | 6,885$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.79 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 4c | 6,412$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.94 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 11c | 5,889$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.12 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 5,480$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.39 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 8c | 5,243$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.14 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 5,002$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.96 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked Yes | 10c | 4,126$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.88 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 15c | 4,067$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.17 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 17c | 3,979$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.89 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…b1eebacked Yes | 7c | 3,365$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 3,298$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c7…0e95backed Yes | 7c | 3,185$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.78 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 10c | 3,087$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.1 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 19c | 3,061$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.93 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Yes | 10c | 2,894$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.49 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,699$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.19 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7d…7e77backed Yes | 10c | 2,208$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 1,968$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.71 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,927$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…8da6backed Yes | 10c | 1,900$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 14c | 1,896$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.6 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 1,489$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.49 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,486$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…24e6backed Yes | 15c | 1,410$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,322$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 1,314$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 1,281$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.37 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 1,259$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda3…bdbebacked Yes | 15c | 1,250$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacd…e677backed Yes | 19c | 1,198$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…2f95backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…a086backed Yes | 20c | 995.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…620dbacked Yes | 10c | 895.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc4…6b81backed Yes | 7c | 883.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a8…5bacbacked Yes | 13c | 846.42$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…a056backed No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…d14fbacked Yes | 13c | 765.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 750$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 3c | 724.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb229…8e56backed Yes | 14c | 716.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…b1e3backed Yes | 14c | 714.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…7f19backed Yes | 21c | 714.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…fb9ebacked Yes | 14c | 713.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c05…ba6dbacked Yes | 3c | 710.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…cdcbbacked Yes | 15c | 699.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…ffaabacked Yes | 14c | 699.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…e1a0backed Yes | 15c | 651.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 628.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 13c | 538.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…79eebacked Yes | 5c | 536.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes | 17c | 517.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.29per pick | 35cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 6c | 516.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…4799backed Yes | 10c | 510$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…418cbacked Yes | 2c | 462.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed No | 79c | 454.78$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…a6e5backed Yes | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 445.66$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…2c31backed Yes | 15c | 430$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…b3c5backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6017…574dbacked Yes | 4c | 396.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x525a…f6f0backed Yes | 15c | 392.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ea…9478backed Yes | 7c | 371.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 12c | 350$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…a727backed Yes | 15c | 333.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 8c | 328.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x208e…960bbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…fa64backed Yes | 19c | 299.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…2befbacked Yes | 16c | 295.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 279.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba1…e0b1backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb50a…673ebacked Yes | 15c | 266.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…5246backed Yes | 16c | 261.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked Yes | 13c | 260.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…969bbacked Yes | 11c | 254.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…bd1fbacked Yes | 18c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…ebecbacked Yes | 12c | 245.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb54f…f882backed Yes | 10c | 244.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 17c | 220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 15c | 217.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 212.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5efd…e08ebacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…6271backed Yes | 13c | 208.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…809cbacked Yes | 14c | 207.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287f…d09abacked Yes | 17c | 205.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…ea6fbacked Yes | 16c | 190.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 7c | 170.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b70…67e7backed Yes | 17c | 167.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0413…8180backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by March 31, 2026?this page
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?No won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 21, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Yes won
- Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.