Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23fdfb46a3b824d8c51f12e8652f39b401991a1c3a28f0e0386ea53c9205de0d

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $445,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $179,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,851 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	33,491$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.36	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	25,553$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	16,540$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.34	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e7e…18e5backed Yes	0c	8,365$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	8,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes	6c	7,133$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.25	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	6,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c65…0f31backed Yes	1c	4,613$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.13	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,463$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.06	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,296$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.92	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	4,164$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.14	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes	0c	4,100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08a3…d653backed Yes	1c	4,020$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.14	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	7c	3,700$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.99	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	3,576$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.28	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	3,450$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.82	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x346e…06a9backed Yes	0c	3,350$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,949$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.92	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x055a…7bbcbacked Yes	5c	2,881$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.05	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	2,600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	2,500$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.8	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	0c	2,480$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes	1c	2,438$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	183	21.9%40 W · 143 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	2,365$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	2,357$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	1c	2,326$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.24	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	2,201$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.05	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	1c	2,191$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	2c	2,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.47	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	1,941$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.52	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	3c	1,800$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b97…d6acbacked Yes	1c	1,789$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	2c	1,779$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.74	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3309…be44backed Yes	1c	1,775$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Yes	6c	1,772$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+97.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	3c	1,726$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.81	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	4c	1,534$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.36	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed Yes	1c	1,486$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes	3c	1,449$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.99	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	4c	1,376$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.27	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	5c	1,353$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.17	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	4c	1,323$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.55	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	9c	1,233$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	1,227$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.86	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,226$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	5c	1,201$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.06	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c0…547ebacked Yes	3c	1,170$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84a6…29cebacked Yes	1c	1,143$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	10cpaid	+71.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	6c	1,036$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.18	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,021$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	4c	999.99$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	6c	999.93$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe1c…3ca5backed Yes	7c	983.68$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.86	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	913.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	1c	910.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab9…aff7backed Yes	7c	883.65$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.86	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+81.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	862.24$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	2c	850$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	1c	847.94$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	1c	825.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	806.69$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x420b…c5cdbacked Yes	3c	761.64$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe255…6a94backed Yes	5c	682.82$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.64	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-80%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	6c	666$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.18	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	2c	600$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cde…bf31backed Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes	6c	600$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-86%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	6c	550$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x818b…ea84backed Yes	7c	536.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x025f…6771backed Yes	4c	526.01$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.46	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	7c	468.25$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	7c	428.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa90…b224backed Yes	2c	409.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2c…7697backed Yes	7c	385.71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c49…9525backed Yes	3c	359.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	53	20.8%11 W · 42 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c3…d002backed Yes	7c	357.14$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	5c	350$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	3c	350$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d15…e453backed Yes	6c	311.88$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc835…d92abacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	39	10.3%4 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed6…c4aabacked Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	77	13%10 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7edc…8f80backed Yes	6c	299.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb126…8a5abacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace1…923bbacked Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes	5c	257.69$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	161	19.9%32 W · 129 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f3…ebbbbacked Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec4f…24cfbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	180.72$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7d…0caabacked Yes	8c	139.68$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4250…5c32backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	68	11.8%8 W · 60 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event