Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e0a60dbe509fc1e6b53b1418a91f69328e6b43473f2c30c2ca44f33a4b3c7d

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $475,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $239,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $475,926 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	53,976$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.98	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	50,187$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.46	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	37,970$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.97	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34b8…523cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	9,350$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,707$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	0c	5,819$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	4,910$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4b…409abacked Yes	1c	4,738$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec4f…24cfbacked Yes	2c	4,293$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	3,906$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	3,813$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.24	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	3,685$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cc4…a9c3backed Yes	1c	3,497$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.85	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f2d…ddc1backed Yes	1c	2,665$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	0c	2,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	1c	2,218$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,133$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	1c	1,969$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.24	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	1,961$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77e3…06a9backed Yes	1c	1,949$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.04	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	2c	1,883$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.83	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc858…d6dabacked Yes	1c	1,846$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	1c	1,730$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	1c	1,729$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	1c	1,488$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,399$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xace5…4457backed Yes	1c	799.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	3cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	2c	638$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8848…b9e2backed Yes	5c	214.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event