Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8461d782f2af2cc7355bf84edd2b67158b94e391b08e46779d68b9fb88b3023

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $856,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $526,089

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $856,284 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0e24…67d0backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	15,831$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.18	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	12,520$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$637.57	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	11,992$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	11,045$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.97	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf545…305bbacked Yes	0c	10,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4523…9c64backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	9,351$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.76	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	3c	8,528$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.11	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes	1c	8,333$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	8,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	7,528$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	4c	7,276$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.81	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	7,073$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.81	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	6,852$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.65	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	6,715$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.38	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	3c	6,262$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.48	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe95e…307bbacked Yes	5c	6,072$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.6	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	5c	5,948$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.96	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	2c	5,937$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	1c	5,739$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.39	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	5,736$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.06	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	5,321$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.57	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	4c	5,296$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.61	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	6c	5,109$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.42	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	4,682$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.26	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	3c	4,653$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.3	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	3c	4,604$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.99	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,418$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.11	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	4,219$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.13	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	4c	3,912$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.22	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	3,753$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.85	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,740$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.76	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	3,563$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.78	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	3,554$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.94	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	3,445$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.01	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	3c	3,396$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.63	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	5c	3,262$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.41	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	3,131$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.78	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	7c	3,100$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.5	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc24…a62fbacked Yes	2c	3,015$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	2c	3,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	2,650$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.31	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes	5c	2,540$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+81.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,528$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.24	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02d…0127backed Yes	5c	2,388$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e7…7380backed Yes	5c	2,244$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.81	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+42%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	3c	2,235$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.2	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	4c	2,219$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.55	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	2,205$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	2,074$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.87	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	1c	2,019$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	2,017$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.19	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12f…2852backed Yes	5c	1,980$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d51…8b8ebacked Yes	3c	1,886$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.33	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	4c	1,878$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.08	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	4c	1,874$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.78	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,855$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.58	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	3c	1,796$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.37	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	1c	1,784$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e5…441dbacked Yes	6c	1,770$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.42	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+107.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	2c	1,768$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.54	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc07…a6d6backed Yes	1c	1,767$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	4c	1,583$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.26	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,524$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	1,448$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,446$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.45	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Yes	4c	1,399$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.26	85	45.9%39 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,280$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	4c	1,276$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.88	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13c8…625fbacked Yes	1c	1,260$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	1,240$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	5c	1,210$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.01	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	3c	1,208$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5401…50a1backed Yes	1c	1,174$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe96c…720abacked Yes	4c	1,125$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52a9…8d78backed Yes	1c	1,106$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes	3c	1,100$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.93	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d47…f101backed Yes	4c	1,064$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.85	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe863…9a56backed Yes	3c	1,061$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.8	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	4c	1,018$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.19	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	1,018$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.52	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,015$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	3c	1,009$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a66…baa9backed Yes	6c	1,000$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.06	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+43%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	2c	1,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d81…9f3cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.88	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	999.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	979.56$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.05	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d2…0d90backed Yes	3c	963.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+92.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	960.61$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	941.53$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa77d…8ce8backed Yes	1c	939.26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	4c	912.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.38	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	2c	908.12$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.15	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	3c	874.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc710…f2aebacked Yes	3c	868.53$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	4c	851.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event