Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf81c6feb35aee1aebc4f2196a726ada52131ebdb5b0576385b802f4786dd31

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $859,237
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $450,228

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $859,237 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	34,750$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930.96	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	32,774$969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$968.69	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33eb…22f7backed Yes	2c	27,527$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.39	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	21,569$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$818.67	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6f…427abacked Yes	0c	15,667$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,332$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	11,386$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.39	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,332$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	10,633$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.7	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	11c	10,420$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,174.61	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	9,140$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.32	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	8,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	13c	7,834$995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$994.65	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	7,790$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.76	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes	5c	7,334$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	9c	7,039$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.75	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	6,329$644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	8c	6,309$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.78	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	5,958$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.37	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	18c	5,643$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	5,400$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6911…ede3backed Yes	13c	5,310$690 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.3	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	7c	5,299$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.33	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	8c	4,771$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.8	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	4,765$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.46	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	9c	4,740$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.01	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	9c	4,689$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b36…92b1backed Yes	12c	4,651$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.09	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+128.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	11c	4,628$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.66	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	7c	4,489$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.25	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	2c	4,300$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.79	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	2c	3,700$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,698$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.29	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	3,686$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.87	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe95e…307bbacked Yes	6c	3,656$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.39	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	11c	3,600$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.48	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	13c	3,496$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.48	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	8c	3,376$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.39	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	2c	3,359$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	3c	3,237$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.25	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	12c	3,235$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.97	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	6c	3,115$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.93	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6e2…c3cabacked Yes	9c	3,080$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.75	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	6c	3,016$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.57	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	1c	3,012$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.51	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	3,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	5c	3,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.99	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	2,722$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.87	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,711$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.7	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	2,550$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.53	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44e4…f624backed Yes	14c	2,524$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.1	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	2,500$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	9c	2,500$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,458$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	13c	2,262$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.54	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	2,260$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.47	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	11c	2,228$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.25	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	7c	2,222$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.44	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	2,210$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.47	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	2,209$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.29	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.7	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3038…fdebbacked Yes	14c	2,166$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	78	26.9%21 W · 57 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	2,019$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	13c	2,000$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.11	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	9c	1,950$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.35	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	1,914$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	1,900$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.24	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb795…020cbacked Yes	3c	1,894$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.05	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	14c	1,886$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x610c…998fbacked Yes	1c	1,875$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	10c	1,853$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.98	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	8c	1,817$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.36	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	1,800$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.02	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	3c	1,730$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	4c	1,728$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	1,633$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.11	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe218…f33bbacked Yes	15c	1,628$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.72	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	10c	1,604$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.32	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	8c	1,600$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.65	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	7c	1,531$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.18	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	1,507$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.2	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	7c	1,506$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.04	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,466$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x536d…b549backed Yes	11c	1,411$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.16	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	7c	1,306$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.47	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	8c	1,269$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	15c	1,258$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.27	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	1,257$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	5c	1,240$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.09	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes	8c	1,238$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aab…14f4backed Yes	2c	1,223$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85a1…a640backed Yes	10c	1,140$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.9	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aaf…ac26backed Yes	7c	1,088$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f0…9e29backed Yes	11c	1,070$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dfa…9c89backed Yes	8c	1,062$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a3…8046backed Yes	2c	1,030$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+817.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c7d…9881backed Yes	9c	1,022$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.41	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event