TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$337,023
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,254

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $337,023 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c33,612$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.11,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c16,286$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.952740.4%1 W · 273 L+0.7wins0.00per pick0cpaid+257.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes3c14,536$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.694816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a4e…a184backed Yes0c11,344$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c7,074$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.651410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes0c5,589$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.274869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08a3…d653backed Yes1c4,479$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-54.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes1c4,166$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.666212.9%8 W · 54 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+63.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c4,019$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.131,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c3,904$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.67304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes2c3,755$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.182595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes1c3,693$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.477711.7%9 W · 68 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,665$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.231,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes0c3,325$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071565.8%9 W · 147 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+58%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf45c…d320backed Yes4c3,062$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.82714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick4cpaid+83.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb062…56b4backed Yes0c3,031$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes3c3,000$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.37011.4%8 W · 62 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c2,980$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.542114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes1c2,894$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2518321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c2,853$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.64682.9%2 W · 66 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes1c2,720$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes0c2,609$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9732015%48 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick15cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0e…6369backed Yes4c2,449$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes1c2,367$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.774420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes1c2,340$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.03616.6%4 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c2,230$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.266915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes2c2,000$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110510.5%11 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes1c1,812$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251785.6%10 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aad…3a85backed Yes3c1,781$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.372412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes1c1,695$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1465311%72 W · 581 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes1c1,650$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.385198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb65b…b5d4backed Yes3c1,628$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562015%3 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes1c1,580$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.092794.7%13 W · 266 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes1c1,529$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181356.7%9 W · 126 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes3c1,525$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.491128%9 W · 103 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes1c1,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+150.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes1c1,445$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.012615.4%14 W · 247 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes2c1,262$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.281488.8%13 W · 135 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,231$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.912,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed Yes1c1,117$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.3%5 W · 90 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes3c999.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31118.1%9 W · 102 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes4c999.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401128.9%10 W · 102 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c963.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.154916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes2c905.95$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.62296.9%2 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes2c819.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.12224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c671.09$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.234345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61bc…7cbfbacked Yes4c666.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.99130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes4c650$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6515017.3%26 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c3…d002backed Yes4c613.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254323.3%10 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes2c599.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2855.9%5 W · 80 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc84…a0e2backed Yes3c582.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b99…1dd2backed Yes4c532.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ca…2f7fbacked Yes3c509.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.922810.7%3 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec4f…24cfbacked Yes4c509.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-64.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes4c504.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.91603.3%2 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-78.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…1cd9backed Yes4c468.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes6c438.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.811931.1%37 W · 82 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes4c431.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.591007%7 W · 93 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-24.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x95b5…58cdbacked Yes4c424.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed6…9720backed Yes4c401.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes4c400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.436018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes3c379.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0313312.8%17 W · 116 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb126…8a5abacked Yes6c360.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c49…9525backed Yes3c359.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.245320.8%11 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes3c349.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.493016.7%5 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa2c…7697backed Yes5c323.17$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb609…f030backed Yes4c308.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3265…d5b8backed Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5270%0 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59740.2%39 W · 58 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xace1…923bbacked Yes7c296.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20446.8%3 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes4c291.92$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.221910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf840…6a9dbacked Yes4c285.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes5c218.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.160127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.