Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20685afcb4751f212d0bec51c769b174c2be1f951a8c5a5ff93ec3fb61fe6b02

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,401,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $601,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,401,390 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 500 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	134,892$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.79	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48ac…7784backed Yes	1c	45,085$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	43,024$2,399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,398.98	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe24c…d9d0backed Yes	1c	41,825$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.4	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	34,068$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.7	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde58…0a9dbacked Yes	1c	32,798$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	8c	32,730$2,758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,758.36	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	25,888$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.56	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fbb…9a56backed Yes	1c	25,163$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.7	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb28…2160backed Yes	1c	24,180$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.62	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	24,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	16,922$1,978 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,978.38	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	11c	14,013$1,583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,582.61	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	0c	12,458$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.15	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	11,688$910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$910.14	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,590$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes	0c	9,854$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.25	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	11c	9,092$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,038.51	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	8c	8,245$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$675.43	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	2c	8,152$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.47	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	8,040$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.69	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	8,037$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.49	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	13c	7,944$1,053 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,052.83	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x220a…7f53backed Yes	0c	7,658$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	15c	7,376$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,096.28	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	14c	7,227$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	9c	6,714$583 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.77	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	15c	6,610$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b0d…5087backed Yes	1c	6,550$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.79	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	6,070$624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.91	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	15c	6,006$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$887.79	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	14c	5,895$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.1	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	5,670$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.49	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	5,599$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.58	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	5,586$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.93	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	13c	5,463$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$707.5	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	0c	5,269$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	5,117$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.35	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	13c	5,116$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.31	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	5,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…ede3backed Yes	16c	4,950$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$792	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b7b…3080backed Yes	0c	4,910$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1d0…aa24backed Yes	1c	4,900$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	11c	4,865$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$549.98	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	11c	4,711$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.88	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	16c	4,621$739 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$738.9	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	8c	4,500$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.46	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	4,279$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.87	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	3,850$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.6	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	13c	3,761$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	4c	3,683$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.32	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	8c	3,603$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.95	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	6c	3,570$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.92	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	6c	3,510$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.07	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…d421backed Yes	17c	3,357$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.91	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	8c	3,262$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe863…9a56backed Yes	2c	3,258$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.98	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	9c	3,233$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.63	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	3,145$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.34	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	3,021$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.94	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	4c	3,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.99	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	7c	2,987$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.47	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	11c	2,815$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.42	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	7c	2,638$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.29	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	6c	2,596$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.99	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	2,571$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.39	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…307bbacked Yes	7c	2,536$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.16	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	16c	2,500$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	10c	2,499$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.86	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	2,481$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.89	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	2,393$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.3	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c7d…9881backed Yes	9c	2,322$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.04	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes	0c	2,304$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…415bbacked Yes	18c	2,284$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	14c	2,250$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.24	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	3c	2,100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d2…3a28backed Yes	19c	2,081$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	6c	2,064$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.51	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aea…8951backed Yes	15c	2,048$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.75	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	2,024$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.49	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	9c	2,000$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	16c	2,000$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.73	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	5c	2,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	8c	2,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	13c	1,989$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.66	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	9c	1,986$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.82	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1359…fc9dbacked Yes	1c	1,959$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-69.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	1,926$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.25	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	7c	1,904$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	1,868$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.08	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	11c	1,849$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.59	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1031…adb1backed Yes	15c	1,840$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.18per pick	32cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Yes	5c	1,821$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+97.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa46f…87c3backed Yes	6c	1,796$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.02	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	11c	1,753$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.58	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	8c	1,723$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.25	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	1c	1,708$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event