Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b8a75fd7be63604b15b8c3eb3b5464a52b792a6a3fc8669b106d3ea9076efab

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,457,884
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $959,837

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,457,884 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 944 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	39,005$4,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,650.6	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	14c	21,004$2,878 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,878.12	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	23c	18,355$4,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,263.83	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	10c	17,918$1,859 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,859.49	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,554$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes	2c	15,550$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.82	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e88…6648backed Yes	0c	10,100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	13c	10,036$1,297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,296.58	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	26c	9,998$2,560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,559.69	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	9c	9,783$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.81	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	4c	9,567$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.87	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	24c	9,100$2,176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,176	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	30c	8,871$2,623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,623.27	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	30c	8,599$2,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,602.42	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	8c	8,564$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.97	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	33c	8,517$2,775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,775.05	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No	79c	8,477$6,730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,746.25	93	55.9%52 W · 41 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	62cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	26c	8,448$2,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,181.87	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	24c	8,435$2,041 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,040.68	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	15c	8,133$1,235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,235.33	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes	37c	8,104$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,999.89	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	66c	7,667$5,037 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,630.05	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	13c	7,573$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$982.91	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	20c	7,446$1,513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,513.37	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	21c	7,246$1,497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,496.58	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	70c	7,195$5,048 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,147.17	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	30c	6,982$2,084 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,084.31	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	12c	6,744$821 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$821.38	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	10c	6,727$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.68	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	18c	6,647$1,193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,193.08	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	37c	6,477$2,409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,408.61	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	16c	6,436$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$998.43	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	16c	6,256$1,001 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.31	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	25c	6,163$1,569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,569.15	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6911…ede3backed Yes	34c	6,110$2,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,101.56	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	25c	6,077$1,532 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,532.25	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	4c	6,000$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes	33c	5,991$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	7c	5,925$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.87	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	18c	5,636$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,002.04	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e64…d421backed Yes	34c	5,342$1,794 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,794.17	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	5,116$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.02	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	6c	5,048$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.49	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	9c	5,029$468 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$467.61	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	5c	5,002$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.41	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	10c	5,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	24c	4,994$1,192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,191.68	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	24c	4,951$1,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,170.24	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	23c	4,598$1,052 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,052.47	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	12c	4,568$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.06	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	32c	4,497$1,421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,421	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	13c	4,362$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.84	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	4,242$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.99	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	39c	4,235$1,670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,670.06	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	2c	4,145$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.88	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	4,037$2,716 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,320.56	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	4,003$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.5	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No	62c	3,817$2,381 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,436.6	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a66…baa9backed Yes	10c	3,753$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.89	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	74c	3,730$2,745 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$984.19	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	3,644$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.5	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	23c	3,521$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$799.8	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	3,514$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.29	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No	73c	3,451$2,514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$936.71	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	11c	3,429$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	39c	3,402$1,310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,310.16	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	78c	3,393$2,659 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$734.23	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	25c	3,322$824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$823.7	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	3,258$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.29	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	22c	3,247$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	13c	3,245$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.41	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	20c	3,243$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.77	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	43c	3,235$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,400	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	44c	3,228$1,405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,405.44	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	24c	3,074$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$732.17	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	24c	3,070$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.2	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	71c	3,037$2,166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$870.4	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	3,035$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.33	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	41c	3,000$1,218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,218	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	18c	2,994$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.45	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	9c	2,992$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed No	71c	2,825$1,993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$832.46	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+58.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700b…652dbacked Yes	25c	2,820$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.47	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes	24c	2,784$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.81	201	29.4%59 W · 142 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	16c	2,777$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.01	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	4c	2,750$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.25	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	9c	2,655$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.39	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,629$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.03	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	14c	2,622$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.6	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	2c	2,605$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.81	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	16c	2,594$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.88	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	33c	2,585$840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$840.06	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	29c	2,549$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$736.97	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	2,522$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	7c	2,512$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.14	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	7c	2,500$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.01	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	24c	2,500$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.6	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	5c	2,491$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	14c	2,360$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.41	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	17c	2,343$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.62	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event