Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55aab6145483b77745c771248eb02e3a389d5ea66a1b849a778b40eadda7aa6d

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,237,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $760,078

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,237,621 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 679 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	43,750$5,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,033.17	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	43,560$3,133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,132.86	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	5c	15,987$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.2	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	9c	14,670$1,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,375.16	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	8c	11,136$913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$912.85	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	13c	10,381$1,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,310.55	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	8c	10,222$834 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.63	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	13c	9,609$1,284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,284.16	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	2c	9,004$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.2	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	12c	8,570$991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$991.13	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	18c	8,023$1,431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,431.26	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	14c	7,595$1,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,072.97	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes	5c	7,470$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.33	103	22.3%23 W · 80 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	21c	7,389$1,562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,562.15	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	7,167$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.85	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	7,100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	14c	6,903$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	17c	6,788$1,180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,180	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	13c	6,553$848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$848.2	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	1c	6,306$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.94	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	15c	6,276$957 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$957.28	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	6,260$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.77	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	17c	6,228$1,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032.16	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	6,110$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes	11c	6,003$660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$660	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	18c	5,829$1,046 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,045.68	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	11c	5,751$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$642.61	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	20c	5,684$1,158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,157.6	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	10c	5,596$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.63	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	22c	5,582$1,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230.9	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	3c	5,500$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	5c	5,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.8	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	7c	5,217$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.76	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…ede3backed Yes	16c	5,174$844 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$843.56	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	20c	5,100$1,033 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032.91	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	5,030$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.5	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes	11c	4,879$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.97	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	4,866$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.5	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	4,700$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.04	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde58…0a9dbacked Yes	0c	4,659$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	4,608$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.81	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	4c	4,500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.31	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	13c	4,437$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$555.48	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…2160backed Yes	10c	4,400$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.86	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	5c	4,279$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.11	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	4,268$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.01	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	6c	4,223$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.55	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	4c	4,118$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.43	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	13c	4,100$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.22	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	13c	4,087$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$536.71	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	11c	4,000$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	3,976$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.67	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	3,783$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.37	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	3,500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee5d…5c05backed Yes	7c	3,405$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.76	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	3c	3,387$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.93	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf328…2b78backed Yes	6c	3,332$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	28c	3,255$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	18c	3,251$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.85	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	16c	3,202$501 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500.9	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	3,200$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.44	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	2c	3,100$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.4	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	17c	3,032$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.68	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	23c	3,017$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	13c	3,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	3c	3,000$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	24c	2,936$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c2…8acebacked Yes	22c	2,868$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.98	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	5c	2,783$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.58	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	26c	2,702$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.72	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	8c	2,680$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	6c	2,650$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.68	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a66…baa9backed Yes	17c	2,554$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.07	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	18c	2,452$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.96	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	15c	2,438$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.51	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,415$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.09	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes	19c	2,378$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.84	77	13%10 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	15c	2,357$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.34	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	15c	2,276$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.15	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	21c	2,230$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.49	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	2,228$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.3	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	4c	2,103$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.47	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes	17c	2,102$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-61%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8755…e152backed Yes	7c	2,060$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	19c	2,044$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.85	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	16c	2,000$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.9	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+90%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	21c	1,978$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410.06	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe863…9a56backed Yes	4c	1,963$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.27	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-72.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No	76c	1,932$1,468 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$463.6	29	79.3%23 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	72cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	9c	1,907$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.62	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	17c	1,891$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.59	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	10c	1,889$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	1,863$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.21	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	7c	1,860$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.68	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	1,766$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.75	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes	7c	1,700$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.6	93	32.3%30 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	13c	1,692$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.83	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	6c	1,676$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.46	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	6c	1,670$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event