Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc38643b9efadd7887171906e4bfbfbd179d1cd4f7a93696540e33386998b274f

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $614,048
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $356,413

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $614,048 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	21,555$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.22	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a41…a88cbacked Yes	3c	17,187$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	14,550$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.74	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2263…1d7cbacked Yes	5c	10,759$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	8,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	7,572$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.73	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,776$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.28	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,746$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e7…7380backed Yes	2c	5,693$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.58	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+42%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	5,471$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.94	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	5,314$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	5,023$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.73	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	4,561$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.75	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	2c	4,240$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.82	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	1c	4,233$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.05	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	2c	4,008$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.54	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	2c	4,000$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.3	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	3,945$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.2	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	1c	3,736$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.45	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,728$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.96	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,507$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.21	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	3,009$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.02	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	2c	2,882$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.79	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	2,778$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.98	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	2,699$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.71	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	8c	2,680$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	2,561$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.55	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	2,555$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.34	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	2,475$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.29	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02d…0127backed Yes	2c	2,392$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	2,351$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.87	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	2c	2,335$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.36	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	2c	2,316$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.83	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	2,267$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.09	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95b8…7897backed Yes	5c	2,258$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.04	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	1c	2,252$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,219$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,213$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.45	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,167$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed Yes	1c	2,162$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a66…baa9backed Yes	5c	2,088$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.61	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,988$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.57	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	7c	1,767$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	1,748$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.26	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	1,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	4c	1,660$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.09	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes	6c	1,547$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	54	22.2%12 W · 42 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83cc…3bcdbacked Yes	3c	1,500$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+43%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	1c	1,495$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,478$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.12	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	1,452$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.68	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	3c	1,424$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.63	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	3c	1,396$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x821b…8b2bbacked Yes	1c	1,395$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb546…3149backed Yes	2c	1,265$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	3c	1,172$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.25	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	1c	1,146$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4523…9c64backed Yes	2c	1,135$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9b…7605backed Yes	1c	1,060$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,026$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	6c	1,001$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.76	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68f…8d49backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x636b…615bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	167	29.9%50 W · 117 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e4f…3529backed Yes	1c	999.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	999.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed Yes	2c	986.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff3f…217fbacked Yes	8c	918.78$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.87	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+149.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ee…c175backed Yes	2c	882.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e83…7723backed Yes	1c	850.83$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	56	25%14 W · 42 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d1…549bbacked Yes	6c	826.67$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.09	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	790.06$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf3…c499backed Yes	5c	777.79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.77	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+37%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7826…2057backed Yes	1c	720.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x714b…d071backed Yes	3c	699.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	2c	699.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes	3c	645.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fd…434abacked Yes	3c	622.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	609.47$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.81	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed15…c4aabacked Yes	5c	603.39$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes	5c	578$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb084…be70backed Yes	2c	538.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	7c	531.18$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes	4c	519.85$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.33	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+70%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60cf…7440backed Yes	2c	519.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b7…af8fbacked Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	233	21%49 W · 184 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a22…7834backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+60.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	5c	474.85$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…0ddabacked Yes	4c	465.12$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-2.0wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x856b…d53cbacked Yes	5c	424.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+2.7wins	+0.15per pick	24cpaid	+15%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	5c	399.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	5c	391.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes	5c	385.19$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	69	20.3%14 W · 55 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+207.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd63f…fea7backed Yes	3c	379.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfab8…c3b0backed Yes	5c	377.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	+87.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5401…50a1backed Yes	6c	360.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event