Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f5dd4cd555a26f2ed7020f7d0c04f4b223a39ee1ef2d1f1438cbadfe6b2e55

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $600,760
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $274,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $600,760 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	35,553$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.95	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	28,538$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	22,352$1,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,394.59	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	15,220$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.22	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe95e…307bbacked Yes	9c	11,000$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	7c	9,010$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.21	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	8,319$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	8,000$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	9c	6,076$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.52	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	5c	5,400$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.4	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	4,994$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.28	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	4,600$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.02	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,190$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.17	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c5…95c4backed Yes	12c	4,151$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed Yes	0c	4,051$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe02d…0127backed Yes	0c	4,030$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	3,965$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.75	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	3,836$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.31	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	3,461$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.39	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	11c	3,355$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.09	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	7c	3,288$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.11	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed Yes	11c	3,226$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.86	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	3,183$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.21	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	3c	3,120$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.62	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	3,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.5	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes	10c	2,758$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.35	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	2,756$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.92	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf45c…d320backed Yes	5c	2,699$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.94	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,650$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.19	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	4c	2,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	7c	2,458$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.24	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	2,430$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.78	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	6c	2,362$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.03	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	5c	2,300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.9	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46fe…d0e7backed Yes	2c	2,300$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.6	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	6c	2,251$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.97	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	2,130$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,002$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	2,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.99	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,871$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	8c	1,818$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.36	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	10c	1,800$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,716$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.26	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0d…b6cabacked Yes	12c	1,667$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	1,624$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.87	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	1,596$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.59	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	1c	1,590$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa95b…6927backed Yes	13c	1,575$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…64f4backed Yes	12c	1,566$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.89	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	4c	1,532$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.9	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	1,506$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.64	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	4c	1,500$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f93…7de2backed Yes	4c	1,480$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	1,475$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.85	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	1,400$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.33	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed69…f3eabacked Yes	1c	1,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	6c	1,388$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	1,384$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.41	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	2c	1,350$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.2	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes	5c	1,322$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.88	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	4c	1,300$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	9c	1,289$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.28	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	3c	1,283$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.91	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,280$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.59	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c7d…9881backed Yes	4c	1,271$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.92	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11bd…caa7backed Yes	12c	1,254$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	3c	1,237$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.36	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	5c	1,218$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	1,146$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdef7…217fbacked Yes	8c	1,139$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.55	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+96%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x255f…c6d4backed Yes	13c	1,120$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.4	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,084$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.36	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,012$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.45	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	10c	1,010$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	5c	1,008$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.07	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	5c	1,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa2d2…467ebacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aaf…ac26backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	10c	999.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	12c	999.99$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	11c	999.98$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	999.96$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	5c	960.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	4c	940.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.82	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7db…293fbacked Yes	2c	919.16$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.38	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ee…9951backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc579…21cdbacked Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…fc73backed Yes	11c	899.99$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	13c	843.03$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.45	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	6c	833.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	814.01$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.98	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd96c…d6dfbacked Yes	4c	801.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	63	9.5%6 W · 57 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4441…3551backed Yes	2c	800$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event