Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6b196a310edc84d94077c630bdde61764b7b1457006241083f147e5a4e5ef84

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $482,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $323,413

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,303 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	47,109$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.22	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	2c	25,000$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.82	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	18,837$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.13	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d1c…3cb7backed Yes	0c	8,771$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed Yes	2c	7,017$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.83	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	2c	7,000$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb856…8fb6backed Yes	0c	5,175$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	2c	4,140$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.81	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,897$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.04	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	3,792$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.44	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	1c	3,383$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.23	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,186$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	3,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	2,623$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	2,577$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.69	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6469…d07cbacked Yes	1c	2,532$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506f…ae53backed Yes	1c	2,291$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,286$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	2c	2,057$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a66…baa9backed Yes	1c	2,011$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.37	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	1,859$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ce…7b3cbacked Yes	3c	1,817$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-86.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	2c	1,744$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.39	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	1c	1,645$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.38	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	1c	1,416$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	1,300$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.74	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	1c	1,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	1,040$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf3…c499backed Yes	1c	1,020$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+37%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6de…12f7backed Yes	2c	883.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34cd…3803backed Yes	1c	694.33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes	2c	590$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	40	20%8 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event