Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x631549bbd065c3662fd958720ad66b40f20764455145ffe6bc37a72444cc79f2

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $815,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $443,110

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $815,739 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	50,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	20,329$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	13,829$797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.36	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	10,250$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.75	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	10,092$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.26	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	9c	10,003$938 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$938.38	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed Yes	1c	10,000$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.79	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ecc…6931backed Yes	7c	10,000$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.98	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95e…307bbacked Yes	8c	8,077$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646.14	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	8,014$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.23	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	8,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	10c	7,727$740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$739.74	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	7,706$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	14c	7,070$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	9c	6,452$603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$603.46	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	5,985$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.99	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	5,400$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.19	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	5,199$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	6c	5,040$327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.47	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x693e…8092backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	1c	5,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	8c	5,000$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	8c	4,894$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.13	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	4,849$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.7	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,842$456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455.78	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	4,811$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	1c	4,766$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.69	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	4,580$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.48	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	4,566$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	6c	4,500$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.2	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	4c	4,460$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.39	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	4,206$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.55	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,162$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	3,849$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.5	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	6c	3,822$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.87	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	6c	3,764$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.31	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x610c…998fbacked Yes	0c	3,750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6911…ede3backed Yes	8c	3,668$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.16	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ebd…95f3backed Yes	11c	3,665$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.82	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d4…260ebacked Yes	7c	3,340$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.8	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e2…c3cabacked Yes	10c	3,329$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.35	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	1c	3,239$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	3c	3,100$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.5	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	3,065$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.89	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	7c	3,009$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.91	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	3,000$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	9c	3,000$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b76…bf1dbacked Yes	4c	2,822$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.66	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,767$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	2,734$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.27	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	14c	2,718$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	2,622$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.66	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	7c	2,500$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	2,500$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3038…fdebbacked Yes	12c	2,465$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	78	26.9%21 W · 57 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,451$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.93	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	9c	2,364$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.51	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	11c	2,336$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.74	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8177…be85backed Yes	7c	2,290$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.88	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	6c	2,247$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.18	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	2,159$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.84	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes	11c	2,143$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+196.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	8c	2,125$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.3	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x536d…b549backed Yes	11c	2,095$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.45	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	4c	2,095$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.5	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	2,017$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.7	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	10c	2,000$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.26	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.99	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	2,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.6	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	8c	1,908$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.54	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	12c	1,900$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	12c	1,881$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.01	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe018…aacdbacked Yes	2c	1,874$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.19	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	8c	1,871$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	6c	1,847$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.43	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	6c	1,841$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.6	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7955…646bbacked Yes	11c	1,813$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	1,806$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.49	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	11c	1,756$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.84	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc77a…8546backed Yes	6c	1,691$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.13	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+3.4wins	+0.13per pick	10cpaid	+130.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd30a…25e9backed Yes	13c	1,686$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.2	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	15cpaid	-92.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes	1c	1,652$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	4c	1,638$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.79	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8755…e152backed Yes	1c	1,618$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	1,537$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.58	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	10c	1,504$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.37	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	11c	1,486$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.86	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	1,451$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed Yes	9c	1,404$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.36	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	7c	1,394$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.92	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	1,285$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1faf…3b02backed Yes	1c	1,269$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	2c	1,240$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.93	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	9c	1,215$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.91	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	8c	1,200$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.9	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	1,156$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event