TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$575,501
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $575,501 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x95b8…7897backed Yes0c102,373$121 inLost-$120.540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes0c42,468$106 inLost-$106.231,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c36,036$36 inLost-$36.042740.4%1 W · 273 L+0.7wins0.00per pick0cpaid+257.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c25,111$25 inLost-$25.111690%0 W · 169 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb2…6ab4backed Yes0c22,000$22 inLost-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b8…523cbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$20156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick2cpaid-25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e4…dc76backed Yes0c10,432$23 inLost-$22.9640%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7580…853dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick8cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb062…56b4backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c9,214$20 inLost-$19.781,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes0c5,566$17 inLost-$16.7224.5%1 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c4,048$28 inLost-$27.961,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes1c3,460$25 inLost-$24.72595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c3,379$23 inLost-$22.882114.7%10 W · 201 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c2,979$21 inLost-$21.17304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47d…14dfbacked Yes1c2,612$19 inLost-$18.6980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3933…b0b5backed Yes1c2,071$30 inLost-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c32…a26cbacked Yes2c1,695$26 inLost-$25.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes2c1,631$26 inLost-$26.471007%7 W · 93 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-24.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes1c1,586$20 inLost-$204798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes1c1,500$10 inLost-$10.55198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1af8…0beabacked Yes2c1,176$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd8…4ea1backed Yes1c729.66$11 inLost-$10.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes2c638$15 inLost-$1511931.1%37 W · 82 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa141…a6febacked Yes3c411.9$10 inLost-$10.3630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.