Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x785d2d77dd9f5bd79b15c9c7a219d4b017f209a87bf706521d703c748dc5db1e

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $842,903
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $526,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $842,903 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcc24…a62fbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	20,826$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9305…841dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x894b…a174backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	18,316$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.83	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	16,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.41	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	4c	12,191$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.71	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0201…b3e8backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf545…305bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	9,760$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.31	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd4b…cac3backed Yes	4c	9,488$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.82	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	9,412$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.14	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	8,324$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.81	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	8,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2263…1d7cbacked Yes	6c	7,733$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,272$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.04	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…7897backed Yes	2c	5,707$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.37	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	0c	5,689$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.69	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	2c	5,030$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.27	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	4,966$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.61	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	7c	4,782$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.89	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,635$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.62	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	3c	4,564$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.25	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	2c	4,284$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.75	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	4,250$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.23	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	2c	4,119$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.1	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	4,071$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.04	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	2c	4,000$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,971$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.77	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	3,892$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.77	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	4c	3,484$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.54	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	3,358$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.44	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	3,324$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	3c	3,036$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.41	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	2c	3,028$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.76	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	2c	3,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.06	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	7c	2,950$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.6	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e7…7380backed Yes	4c	2,793$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.18	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+42%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e5…441dbacked Yes	5c	2,519$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+107.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	2c	2,338$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	2c	2,335$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.41	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	1c	2,317$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.88	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	2,285$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.05	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	2,241$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.21	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	2,197$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	1c	2,130$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…9ff9backed Yes	1c	2,088$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	3c	2,071$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.4	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	1,962$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe02d…0127backed Yes	3c	1,959$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	2c	1,848$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.58	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	1,842$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	2c	1,792$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	1,749$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.13	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc00c…64bcbacked Yes	1c	1,676$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd4…c1c0backed Yes	5c	1,670$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.15	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	22cpaid	+43%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	3c	1,653$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.98	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a66…baa9backed Yes	5c	1,648$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.33	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d51…8b8ebacked Yes	1c	1,517$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4523…9c64backed Yes	1c	1,447$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,400$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.25	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	3c	1,253$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.11	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7631…6cc9backed Yes	9c	1,201$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.55	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	3c	1,191$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,144$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	3c	1,064$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.86	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	1,028$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,020$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,005$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.67	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	6c	1,000$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.53	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	61	18%11 W · 50 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	1c	999.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	3c	999.96$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.7	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x821b…8b2bbacked Yes	1c	954$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	2c	928.25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	920.52$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08e2…8ec6backed Yes	1c	906.39$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	880.47$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Yes	4c	850.32$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+70%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5713…76fbbacked Yes	2c	830.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe47d…14dfbacked Yes	2c	801.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	3c	800$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.46	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe79…9666backed Yes	7c	800$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.4	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	8cpaid	+130.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3c…916fbacked Yes	1c	778.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	1c	776.19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	3c	699.85$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.89	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ea…be40backed Yes	2c	665.49$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	6c	650$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e5…d2b7backed Yes	3c	644.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.18per pick	11cpaid	+141.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes	5c	639.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.14	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe96c…720abacked Yes	3c	638.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x215b…1aa6backed Yes	3c	601.64$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18c4…b348backed Yes	5c	585.97$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes	2c	580.87$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	2c	568.03$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24d9…e3e6backed Yes	8c	548.17$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.13	54	22.2%12 W · 42 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	4c	540$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.38	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	3c	531.48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event