Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2762e4242562e6f86f72868b42d126e0b9ec40d32df031bb62e583bf53da1cb

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,657,060
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,411,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,657,060 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,063 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x97ff…d095backed No	36c	25,009$9,012 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,012.13	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	16c	23,801$3,885 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19,915.79	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	19,027$775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18,251.63	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	54c	17,744$9,631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,113.1	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d3c…5467backed Yes	12c	17,000$1,993 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,007.46	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	15,000$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,919.93	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	17c	13,997$2,318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,679.18	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	66c	13,813$9,144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,668.56	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	7c	11,653$773 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,879.73	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	11,298$1,847 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,450.68	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	20c	10,328$2,098 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,230.13	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	33c	10,013$3,351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,661.41	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	19c	10,010$1,896 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,113.68	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e64…d421backed Yes	35c	10,006$3,454 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,552.41	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No	1c	9,805$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.15	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	14c	9,686$1,396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,289.6	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0d7…2305backed Yes	44c	9,411$4,165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,245.73	184	24.5%45 W · 139 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	21c	9,267$1,990 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,277.15	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	45c	8,831$3,996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,834.52	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	44c	8,754$3,851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,851.35	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	52c	8,573$4,486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,086.98	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	8,486$478 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,007.84	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x604d…1ccbbacked Yes	50c	8,425$4,197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,228.34	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	40c	8,268$3,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,308.61	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	8,000$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,600	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	51c	7,791$3,959 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,832.08	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	47c	7,439$3,461 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,978.41	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	7,425$1,073 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,352.02	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fd…434abacked Yes	14c	6,883$952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,931.03	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	14c	6,599$913 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,685.7	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…2160backed No	1c	6,595$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.41	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	14c	6,571$952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,618.11	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	9c	6,491$616 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,874.84	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	39c	6,450$2,519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,519.45	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	15c	6,293$958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,335.89	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes	64c	6,271$3,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,272.19	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	6,030$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,741.01	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	20c	5,997$1,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,789.02	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	18c	5,932$1,053 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,878.58	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	35c	5,634$1,981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,652.89	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No	70c	5,220$3,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,634.26	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	5c	5,187$266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,921.03	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a66…baa9backed Yes	11c	5,037$530 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,507.19	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	6c	4,992$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,676.43	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	29c	4,892$1,415 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,476.59	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	66c	4,781$3,156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,624.91	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4aa…2ea8backed Yes	48c	4,689$2,274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,414.86	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	4,664$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,461.19	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	23c	4,619$1,050 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,568.51	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	54c	4,475$2,395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,080.52	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x700b…652dbacked Yes	30c	4,362$1,315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,047.39	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x941f…276ebacked Yes	69c	4,339$2,989 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,349.69	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	33c	4,026$1,333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,693.48	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	18c	4,000$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,289.98	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	3,950$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,773.47	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	20c	3,796$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,028.8	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	55c	3,708$2,048 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,659.98	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa45…4bffbacked No	1c	3,696$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.23	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	49c	3,555$1,755 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,800.19	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	6c	3,519$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,318.87	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes	17c	3,513$585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,927.85	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	3c	3,452$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,334.09	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	18c	3,447$622 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,824.97	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	25c	3,294$820 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,474.56	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf374…ce1abacked Yes	52c	3,250$1,699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,550.6	46	37%17 W · 29 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+45.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,240$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,121.08	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	77c	3,239$2,491 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,490.94	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes	53c	3,178$1,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,478.17	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	14c	3,146$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,720.8	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	9c	3,115$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,835.35	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	47c	3,018$1,409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,609.1	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	5c	3,007$148 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,858.95	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	3c	3,000$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,912.71	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c5…95c4backed Yes	15c	2,942$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,507.36	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes	36c	2,875$1,040 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,835.47	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c7d…9881backed Yes	8c	2,839$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,600.37	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	30c	2,701$811 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,890.37	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	18c	2,674$475 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,199.36	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	49c	2,673$1,300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,373.17	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,637$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,492.98	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	24c	2,587$625 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,961.82	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43a…5912backed Yes	15c	2,517$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,127.08	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+93.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	60c	2,481$1,492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$989.09	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	55c	2,427$1,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,081.95	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d16…78f5backed Yes	31c	2,419$743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,675.36	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	27c	2,361$631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,730.41	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes	54c	2,286$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,056.27	201	29.4%59 W · 142 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	37c	2,282$848 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,433.85	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked Yes	33c	2,268$752 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,516.26	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	6c	2,237$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,100.51	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fae…6a71backed Yes	38c	2,163$823 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,340.33	57	35.1%20 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	2c	2,152$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,099.1	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	20c	2,128$419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,708.57	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	2,119$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,021.29	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	2,113$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,986.97	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde58…0a9dbacked No	1c	2,110$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.08per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Yes	5c	2,075$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,974.59	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+97.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes	58c	2,027$1,175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$851.98	93	32.3%30 W · 63 L	-5.5wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd30b…cf54backed Yes	9c	2,000$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,824.18	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+67.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	2,000$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,797	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event