Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6adb66d3727e26f2ce10ab901626ba260f7ce3e98719805244c962d41f9d04

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $694,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $316,090

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $694,130 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	21,855$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.86	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	21,656$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.49	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	11,502$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575.08	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…307bbacked Yes	9c	10,890$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980.1	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9cb…84a1backed Yes	9c	10,346$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8755…e152backed Yes	0c	10,033$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	3c	10,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	10c	8,696$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$888.37	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	7,995$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.9	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	7,777$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.55	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c5…95c4backed Yes	13c	7,640$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	13c	7,526$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	6,407$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.55	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	1c	6,333$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.35	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	6,130$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.21	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	5,858$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.71	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	5,800$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	5,563$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.77	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	5,398$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.54	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	5,002$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.28	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda98…5119backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf982…f450backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3262…9c25backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-54.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed Yes	10c	4,415$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.52	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,412$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.37	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	6c	4,331$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.42	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	9c	4,326$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.12	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	4,133$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.13	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	4,082$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.26	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	4,041$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.57	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	4,007$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.42	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	3,718$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe018…aacdbacked Yes	1c	3,661$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	3,502$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	3,438$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.93	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	9c	3,220$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73be…11dfbacked Yes	0c	3,151$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	72	6.9%5 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-56.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	13c	3,032$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	2,855$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.09	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	2,706$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.83	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	11c	2,555$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.61	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	9c	2,518$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	2c	2,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	2,417$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.75	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	6c	2,396$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.42	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7955…646bbacked Yes	8c	2,388$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	2,300$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.51	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	6c	2,286$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.88	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	3c	2,200$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	2,186$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.61	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	2,071$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.71	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	2,063$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.6	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	1c	2,059$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	2c	2,055$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.9	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	2c	2,020$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.53	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,001$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.64	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	7c	2,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,000$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	2,000$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.74	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	13c	1,958$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	1,936$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.51	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	13c	1,897$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.32	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7a…3b91backed Yes	13c	1,888$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	2c	1,863$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.77	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	6c	1,820$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.53	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	1,798$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.7	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	1,755$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	4c	1,648$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.38	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,599$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.48	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	8c	1,588$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.49	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	6c	1,500$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	10c	1,500$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	9c	1,490$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.29	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	9c	1,488$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.01	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	7c	1,452$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,446$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.42	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02d…0127backed Yes	3c	1,413$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.95	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	1,412$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.76	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdef7…217fbacked Yes	10c	1,400$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.5	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+96%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	9c	1,356$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.64	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	1,254$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ef…3843backed Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-42%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…7311backed Yes	1c	1,240$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.23	71	16.9%12 W · 59 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5048…4b29backed Yes	12c	1,181$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.71	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	12c	1,170$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	9c	1,169$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f43…d5f6backed Yes	3c	1,148$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	2c	1,123$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8177…be85backed Yes	5c	1,120$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.07	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	1,101$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a21…5319backed Yes	1c	1,098$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	5c	1,088$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa3…b307backed Yes	11c	1,087$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.29	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	11c	1,075$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.98	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	4c	1,060$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.28	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcbb…fd36backed Yes	13c	1,056$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.08	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…8ee4backed Yes	1c	1,022$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event