Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd96842be6b92b8ce2f3040146d12132799e2a4246ca60ac2938978659342adf

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $380,811
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $145,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,811 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	42,984$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,165.43	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	15,473$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.05	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,424$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	8,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18c5…95c4backed Yes	8c	5,871$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.99	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,033$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.43	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,155$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.47	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	9c	4,100$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.99	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes	9c	3,872$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.48	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	4c	3,449$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.82	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	3,446$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.63	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	4c	3,438$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.55	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x962c…bcd6backed Yes	1c	3,431$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	8c	3,400$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	3,341$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.21	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	3,322$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.89	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	5c	3,227$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.08	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	2c	3,064$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.04	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	1c	2,600$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	6c	2,587$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.72	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	2,527$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.14	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,310$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.46	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	1c	2,248$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.92	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	6c	2,118$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	2,094$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.49	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	2,040$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.07	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	3c	2,033$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	6c	2,000$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.99	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	4c	1,848$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.48	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	1,696$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.89	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,600$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.8	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,599$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes	2c	1,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff1…bd17backed Yes	3c	1,490$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.77	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes	1c	1,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	5c	1,349$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.83	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb795…020cbacked Yes	3c	1,320$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.24	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	7c	1,300$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc651…98efbacked Yes	1c	1,279$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb18…d006backed Yes	1c	1,261$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	6c	1,250$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.2	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	2c	1,157$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.77	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	3c	1,153$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.93	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	1,126$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.95	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab9…aff7backed Yes	10c	1,120$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.37	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+81.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc579…21cdbacked Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	10c	1,110$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	6c	1,100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.12	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed Yes	2c	1,078$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	1,070$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	4c	1,045$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,027$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34b8…523cbacked Yes	5c	1,009$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	2cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x863c…655cbacked Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	999.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	8c	999.9$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.99	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	4c	978.07$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7691…7af7backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	+74.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	840.42$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	3c	799.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes	3c	731.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	183	21.9%40 W · 143 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f09…f1c3backed Yes	2c	696.74$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	2c	615.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	607.69$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	111	24.3%27 W · 84 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	8c	599.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84a6…29cebacked Yes	2c	590.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	10cpaid	+71.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes	9c	529.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.9	344	27%93 W · 251 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215b…1aa6backed Yes	2c	521.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x025f…6771backed Yes	4c	505.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…0fa8backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb062…56b4backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	6c	499.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	412.01$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.18	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee6f…128abacked Yes	10c	401.25$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb910…5444backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	8c	399.98$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	8c	399.97$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	7c	377.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.25	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc858…d6dabacked Yes	8c	375$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes	9c	350$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-86%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…570dbacked Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb65b…b5d4backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	161	19.9%32 W · 129 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7edc…8f80backed Yes	9c	300$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	9c	300$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes	5c	299.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	77	13%10 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cde…bf31backed Yes	4c	299.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	10c	295.92$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.59	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c3…d002backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	43	23.3%10 W · 33 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d47…f101backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	7c	243.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36a8…10c4backed Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event