Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55bc441fba44121f6f340d048f581e46dd640118c09c826756f5a46e4ef71a82

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $502,347
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $171,227

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $502,347 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	1c	24,106$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.23	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39de…a94bbacked Yes	4c	15,948$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	14,503$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe95e…307bbacked Yes	7c	14,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…aacdbacked Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Yes	0c	12,745$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	7c	8,553$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.04	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	8,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	8,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	7,437$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.8	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecc7…01e0backed Yes	7c	6,529$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$455	28	3.6%1 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.09per pick	13cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,680$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.13	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…7897backed Yes	2c	5,414$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.19	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	3c	5,182$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.66	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c5…95c4backed Yes	10c	4,883$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	10c	4,853$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.88	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,473$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	4,444$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.55	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes	10c	4,371$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.06	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	3,594$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.15	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	3,497$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.96	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	3,486$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.39	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	2c	3,023$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.24	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	3,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	5c	2,992$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.84	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,923$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.48	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	6c	2,831$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.85	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	2,780$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.28	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	3c	2,773$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,738$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.36	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	2,633$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.64	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	4c	2,620$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.18	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	2,557$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.33	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,455$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	4c	2,048$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.15	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	2c	2,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.99	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c65…0f31backed Yes	2c	1,932$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.73	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…fc73backed Yes	8c	1,900$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	7c	1,900$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.6	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked Yes	9c	1,897$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.78	51	2%1 W · 50 L	-4.2wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-97.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes	3c	1,844$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.39	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	1,778$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.81	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	7c	1,765$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.86	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x46fe…d0e7backed Yes	2c	1,726$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c95…0775backed Yes	8c	1,700$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+73.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d2…467ebacked Yes	1c	1,653$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	4c	1,652$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.3	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	8c	1,636$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.59	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50a…2da4backed Yes	1c	1,512$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	4c	1,508$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.7	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,502$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.68	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	3c	1,500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	1,500$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,499$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	1,486$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	2c	1,450$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	4c	1,448$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.3	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4441…3551backed Yes	1c	1,400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	10c	1,390$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.01	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	4c	1,220$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.02	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7691…7af7backed Yes	13c	1,156$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	9cpaid	+74.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	3c	1,144$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.06	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd1…babcbacked Yes	2c	1,133$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.07	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e28…c195backed Yes	9c	1,111$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+97.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,096$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.89	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	6c	1,069$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	8c	1,055$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	10c	1,054$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.96	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc651…98efbacked Yes	2c	1,049$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f9…5d7abacked Yes	10c	1,010$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	96	20.8%20 W · 76 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6aaf…ac26backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes	9c	999.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdef7…217fbacked Yes	9c	999.97$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+96%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	9c	999.96$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	11c	983.81$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa95b…6927backed Yes	12c	933.33$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	2c	922.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79ee…9951backed Yes	11c	913.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+59.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	11c	910$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc579…21cdbacked Yes	11c	908.45$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.93	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	6c	900.33$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.24	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31e3…3a62backed Yes	8c	899.99$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.3	70	11.4%8 W · 62 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	3c	817.93$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	800$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbd…f10dbacked Yes	8c	799.99$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	62	12.9%8 W · 54 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	5c	766.26$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	9c	730$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.8	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes	4c	712.7$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	183	21.9%40 W · 143 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	686.22$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…feb4backed Yes	5c	679.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	4c	674.1$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.3	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ceb…baefbacked Yes	11c	666.67$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf93…e9babacked Yes	5c	662.06$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb910…5444backed Yes	11c	660.28$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.03	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	22cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	4c	649.51$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event