Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b4324ab7f9462fdc6e011625c98054a6e36411855752e4609d646510cac9ba6

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $726,637
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $372,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $726,637 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	15,000$975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$975	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c94…9768backed Yes	7c	11,983$873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$872.54	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95e…307bbacked Yes	9c	11,000$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	10,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	9c	9,056$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.7	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	8,390$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.98	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	8,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	6c	7,203$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.3	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	6,594$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.8	1,041	11%115 W · 926 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	10c	6,547$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe018…aacdbacked Yes	0c	6,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	6,426$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.03	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	6,386$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.78	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes	11c	5,624$623 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$623.39	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	5,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	5,017$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.8	1,083	8.2%89 W · 994 L	+28.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	4c	5,001$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.63	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,875$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	4,405$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.7	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c5…95c4backed Yes	12c	4,179$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	4,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	530	10.6%56 W · 474 L	+17.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	3,972$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.69	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	3,927$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.82	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd86b…1924backed Yes	9c	3,871$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.28	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,433$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.44	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	6c	3,373$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.06	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe50a…2da4backed Yes	2c	3,288$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.9	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3083…f85cbacked Yes	11c	3,284$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.19	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.16per pick	25cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	3c	3,210$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.83	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	3,144$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.82	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	3,114$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.56	604	27.5%166 W · 438 L	-9.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	5c	3,055$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.45	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	1c	3,050$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.14	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	2,980$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.61	831	14.9%124 W · 707 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	2,810$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.34	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	2,759$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.37	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	2,627$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.34	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	8c	2,516$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.15	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd423…10d3backed Yes	4c	2,503$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.13	86	10.5%9 W · 77 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	4c	2,500$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	2,301$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.65	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed Yes	12c	2,278$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.4	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-66.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f93…7de2backed Yes	5c	2,235$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	2,153$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	1c	2,018$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	5c	2,005$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	2,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.36	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	712	16.7%119 W · 593 L	-13.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	2,000$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	582	8.1%47 W · 535 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.99	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	1,962$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes	5c	1,912$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.2	279	4.7%13 W · 266 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	5c	1,898$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	1,888$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.21	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	5c	1,850$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.95	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	10c	1,835$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.14	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	8c	1,775$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.45	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	4c	1,771$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.35	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	1,750$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.14	461	11.3%52 W · 409 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x821b…8b2bbacked Yes	12c	1,728$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes	5c	1,701$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.84	261	5.4%14 W · 247 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02d…0127backed Yes	1c	1,685$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9a…0793backed Yes	4c	1,600$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	8c	1,600$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.6	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3285…019cbacked Yes	5c	1,600$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf45c…d320backed Yes	4c	1,483$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	4cpaid	+83.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b89…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	1,463$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.44	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	11c	1,456$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.74	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0d…b6cabacked Yes	14c	1,450$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	45	17.8%8 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c6…5529backed Yes	1c	1,429$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	5c	1,408$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	77	32.5%25 W · 52 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11bd…caa7backed Yes	12c	1,350$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	1,331$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	264	15.2%40 W · 224 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	2c	1,300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	2c	1,295$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.41	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	1,265$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.98	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a27…93e8backed Yes	9c	1,211$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.91	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	10c	1,209$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.94	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255f…c6d4backed Yes	13c	1,170$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.1	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+25%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	9c	1,127$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc799…8745backed Yes	2c	1,115$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+61.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed69…f3eabacked Yes	2c	1,111$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	1,101$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	3c	1,100$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	5c	1,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	12c	1,091$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.74	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes	6c	1,050$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	142	16.9%24 W · 118 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	7c	1,050$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	147	25.2%37 W · 110 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	10c	1,023$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x716b…e163backed Yes	9c	1,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.64	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…3c35backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e86…83c6backed Yes	5c	1,000$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	49	16.3%8 W · 41 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc616…3571backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdef7…217fbacked Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+96%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aaf…ac26backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	391	4.6%18 W · 373 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	1c	999.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac64…0dd2backed Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	150	17.3%26 W · 124 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event