TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b89…bc8c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
130
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NFL, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 60 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST7115.5%11 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$29.14
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$14.05
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$17.83
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$38.98
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$44.91
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$58.12
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+1,020%+$145.79
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$65.3
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.03
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+120.7%+$62.9
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24.8
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$55.75
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.55
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34.65
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50.1
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.3
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.1
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+702.1%+$171.62
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.65
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+85.2%+$13.8
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+308.2%+$217.63
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20.55
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT2263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$17.7
76ers vs. Clippers: O/U 218.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+96.1%+$14.7
Rockets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Spread: Rockets (-5.5)backed Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Clippers vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21.92
Heat vs. Sunsbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+75.4%+$9.02
Pelicans vs. Spursbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+333.9%+$43.49
Raptors vs. Warriorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+143.9%+$26.55
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+27.6%+$2.87
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+111.5%+$26.17
Hornets vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$11.42
Magic vs. Grizzlies: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+43.8%+$11.88
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$17.4
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$31
Lakers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$17.9
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 219.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+40.8%+$8.7
Rockets vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+104.4%+$35.75
Hawks vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$37.4
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)backed Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+55.3%+$14.24
Bucks vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+53.8%+$12.25
Bucks vs. Lakersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+89.5%+$59.17
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+93.2%+$19.3
All 22 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2080%16 W · 4 L+4.1wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+36.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
NFL — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+301.6%+$42.42
Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+54.5%+$15.87
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$28.35
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$17.55
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+53.3%+$46.69
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+54.4%+$8.85
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+31.1%+$9.5
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+38.9%+$10.12
49ers vs. Seahawks: O/U 45.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+31.6%+$7.91
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+76.2%+$51.87
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+63%+$20.88
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+38.9%+$11.2
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 49.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+77%+$26.1
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$26.45
49ers vs. Eagles: O/U 47.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+25%+$6
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+49.1%+$9.86
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+166.7%+$25
Rams vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$18.18
All 20 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs illwill (BO3)backed illwill · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3.15
Counter-Strike: Shadows vs Eternal Fire Academy (BO3)backed Eternal Fire Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+73.6%+$17.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+117.4%+$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-01-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+79.3%+$32.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Kent State Golden Flashes (-5.5)backed Kent State Golden Flashes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$17.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Predators vs. Bruinsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.