Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfcb0fb6e231ad58c713c2dcd0ba83b3b30a44745ca36cff81f63747c8cfb32d

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $614,449
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $363,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $614,449 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 290 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb28…2160backed Yes	2c	51,542$1,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,091.54	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	10c	26,571$2,544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,544.18	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	13,778$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.64	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	12,659$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.89	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	12,340$485 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$485.01	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	12,035$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	11,000$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.51	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be0…bee3backed Yes	0c	8,018$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	1c	7,464$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.97	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	7c	7,231$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.33	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,683$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.4	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	2c	5,451$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.02	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aaa…c18dbacked Yes	3c	5,404$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.67	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+219.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	5,131$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.17	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	7c	4,803$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.46	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	4,591$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.96	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	7c	4,485$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	3c	4,102$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35bb…6e36backed Yes	13c	3,763$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	3,691$354 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.08	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	0c	3,681$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.63	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf598…f101backed Yes	2c	3,406$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	3,371$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.85	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	3,334$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.78	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	7c	3,286$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	3,219$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.08	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5947…8bdabacked Yes	6c	3,175$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.49	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	3,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,997$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.42	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	1c	2,980$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	10c	2,920$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.9	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,642$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	2,500$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.91	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	14c	2,364$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.21	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	2,241$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.9	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	6c	2,222$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.32	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	10c	2,155$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.31	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,055$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	2,000$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.9	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	1c	1,750$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	7c	1,721$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.65	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	6c	1,692$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.51	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x736e…ae9cbacked Yes	15c	1,683$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-61%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…0cc2backed Yes	12c	1,611$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+2.4wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+157.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xee97…5e70backed Yes	10c	1,520$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.28	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	6c	1,510$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	13c	1,500$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.62	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9f…0ad6backed Yes	12c	1,500$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	86	9.3%8 W · 78 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2185…99abbacked Yes	15c	1,480$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	6c	1,479$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.71	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,468$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.65	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	12c	1,441$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…415bbacked Yes	7c	1,435$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b90…62d6backed Yes	14c	1,381$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	1,175$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.95	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b5…10eabacked Yes	4c	1,127$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x22fe…e91bbacked Yes	5c	1,110$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.34	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd805…4a00backed Yes	9c	1,089$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.01	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,005$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	999.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d93…455cbacked Yes	7c	999.93$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	30	16.7%5 W · 25 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	8cpaid	+131.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3285…019cbacked Yes	10c	987.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	15cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71cd…9dafbacked Yes	7c	983$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.49	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	3c	977.11$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	3c	967.16$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ef…7690backed Yes	13c	937.98$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.94	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	11c	920.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	903.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	15c	900.87$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.13	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	16c	829.54$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.04	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4692…9f72backed Yes	13c	817.42$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.6	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	9cpaid	+307.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0fa…543ebacked Yes	12c	815.11$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x91c5…c7bbbacked Yes	14c	800$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	47	17%8 W · 39 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	13c	799.98$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7d4…4020backed Yes	13c	768.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.97	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	13c	753.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes	10c	750$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.5	140	26.4%37 W · 103 L	+9.4wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf05a…1049backed Yes	7c	731.77$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.39	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-38%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	8c	700$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	13c	700$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	14c	700$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…0d7abacked Yes	12c	680.63$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.4	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	4c	676$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.64	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf108…25aebacked Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c7…3976backed Yes	10c	616.04$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.99	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	3c	615.03$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes	6c	609.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.76	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	9c	608.43$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	11c	603$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.33	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	9c	599.98$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	9c	599.92$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.99	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes	11c	599.92$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.99	116	24.1%28 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	8c	584.02$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.64	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	10c	580.39$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.04	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked Yes	14c	566.4$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.61	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event