Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9107c09365d4c966a9f633a98906f5078ee7e2463dec9b0fa9eb08753f529b83

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $346,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $170,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $346,623 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa44f…0b2ebacked Yes	0c	9,110$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	2c	9,036$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.5	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	0c	9,033$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.61	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bc…ae0ebacked Yes	0c	8,900$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.82	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	8,005$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.36	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	7,464$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.57	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	6,804$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.11	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	0c	6,487$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.79	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	5,500$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	5,000$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.45	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	4,109$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.35	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,987$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.65	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	3c	3,970$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.09	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	3,900$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.39	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,435$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	3,186$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.89	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	11c	3,000$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.23	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	3,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22fe…e91bbacked Yes	1c	2,953$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	4c	2,660$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.33	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	2,544$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.18	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,528$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.83	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	4c	2,399$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.68	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	9c	2,382$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.72	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	2,320$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	2,283$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,269$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.26	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	2c	2,222$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.33	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08e2…8ec6backed Yes	1c	2,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	2c	2,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.06	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,000$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	5c	1,965$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.01	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	1,947$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,513$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.63	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	2c	1,293$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.39	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,292$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	1,227$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	10c	1,174$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f1b…c2a3backed Yes	2c	1,158$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,069$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,053$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,011$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7750…324dbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes	8c	999.97$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	50	10%5 W · 45 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd805…4a00backed Yes	7c	999.93$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.99	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	12c	900$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	880.44$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.51	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	5c	803.67$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.18	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes	7c	713.88$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.97	173	24.3%42 W · 131 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7d1…a249backed Yes	3c	700$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	45	35.6%16 W · 29 L	+5.6wins	+0.12per pick	23cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	10c	649.97$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	8c	630$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b9…19d0backed Yes	2c	617.8$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.42	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	2cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	11c	599.92$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.64	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes	11c	591.73$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.2	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	2c	576.75$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	4c	537.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	530.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	9c	510$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.9	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	507.74$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c8…4d86backed Yes	9c	500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	8c	500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	8c	500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ba…7bfdbacked Yes	10c	493.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	+245.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	6c	463.74$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.36	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca7…20bbbacked Yes	11c	462.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…0821backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-50%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	6c	437.86$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.07	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d42…aa9cbacked Yes	5c	420$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	8c	410$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	10c	404.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x145a…9669backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	8c	399.93$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe995…1e98backed Yes	11c	385.82$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.44	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e86…83c6backed Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	49	16.3%8 W · 41 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ed…eae7backed Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	40%8 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	9c	258.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Yes	11c	227.27$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf93…e9babacked Yes	9c	209.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9fc…4b70backed Yes	5c	202.94$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c75…98d2backed Yes	10c	200.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd562…6912backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x299c…7462backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0906…247cbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-46%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc799…8745backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	20.7%6 W · 23 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+61.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	13cpaid	+17%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…8d4cbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	12cpaid	-88.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event