TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7750…324d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
126
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Commodities at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4621.7%10 W · 36 L-0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.33
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+147.8%+$119.3
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$130
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$44
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+428.5%+$105.4
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.01
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$23
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$52
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.9
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Military action against Iran ends by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST234.3%1 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick6cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$10.37
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$15.47
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$20.4
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$18.4
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+2,400%+$240
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$24.65
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1915.8%3 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-76%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Commodities — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.72
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.69
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 19 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+93.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+162.6%+$83.24
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.85
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+525%+$157.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$13.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.