Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe03413a81eb9ed3427c2ac2bb43e4842a0033d19f662f42216bdf6b6b45c0c09

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $940,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $483,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $940,649 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	1c	47,464$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.62	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	41,923$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200.29	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	29,995$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.99	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	29,755$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.1	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	28,572$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.58	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	22,827$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.4	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	22,311$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$482.99	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	14,082$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.73	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	14,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	2c	13,445$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.45	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	10c	13,105$1,252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,252	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	11,549$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.8	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	11,052$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	9,882$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.74	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	1c	8,888$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.88	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	1c	8,017$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.69	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	1c	7,862$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.6	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	7,088$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.62	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	6,800$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	6,547$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.61	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb027…7389backed Yes	1c	6,400$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.21	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	4c	6,273$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.98	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	6,101$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.39	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	5,889$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.22	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	5,570$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.27	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	5,566$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.42	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	5,500$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.35	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	4c	5,105$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.65	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	1c	4,978$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.03	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6518…52a7backed Yes	0c	4,933$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	0c	4,810$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	4c	4,728$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.65	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	5c	4,293$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae65…da6dbacked Yes	2c	3,700$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.4	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	7c	3,676$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.1	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	0c	3,676$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.88	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	3,648$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.53	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	1c	3,490$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	1c	3,011$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	3,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	9c	2,345$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.52	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	2,290$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.35	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	2c	2,263$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.68	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	2,157$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.92	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,141$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	2,128$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.44	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	1c	2,100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.2	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	2c	2,080$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.83	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,006$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.22	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bc…ae0ebacked Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	6c	2,000$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	1,990$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.12	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes	2c	1,967$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.54	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,800$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.87	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	1c	1,745$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	1,709$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.97	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	3c	1,709$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.6	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	1c	1,694$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	2c	1,604$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.1	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	8c	1,577$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.02	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	2c	1,571$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	1,554$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes	2c	1,549$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.96	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+196.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e54…8347backed Yes	2c	1,549$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.96	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	8c	1,536$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	1c	1,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	1c	1,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.36	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	1,487$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.74	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	2c	1,479$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	3c	1,479$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes	1c	1,436$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	3c	1,400$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.03	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	1c	1,363$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	1c	1,355$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	7c	1,347$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	1,300$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd65e…814ebacked Yes	3c	1,300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes	3c	1,286$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed Yes	8c	1,276$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	67	11.9%8 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8513…75abbacked Yes	8c	1,224$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	9c	1,222$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.53	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	4c	1,200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.77	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d5…7557backed Yes	7c	1,141$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.1	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	2c	1,014$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	10c	1,008$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.41	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c23…2ccdbacked Yes	7c	1,008$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.42	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15bc…398cbacked Yes	2c	999.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	3c	961.51$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	7c	925.05$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.94	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc66f…b7dabacked Yes	8c	898.17$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.8	65	12.3%8 W · 57 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	2c	886.44$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.61	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	875.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event