Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb482d8783530f5e158b18b3ea0cc5e457337aa8f131cee54777bbd64982f5142

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,636,521
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,327,465

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,636,521 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 850 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	1c	401,128$3,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,282.07	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	27c	87,882$23,701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23,700.87	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	30,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	34c	21,557$7,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,359.95	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	63c	16,022$10,132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,889.53	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	27c	14,743$3,955 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,955.13	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	44c	13,921$6,107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,107.34	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc22…e3ddbacked Yes	0c	13,510$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	45c	13,333$5,974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,973.54	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	40c	12,249$4,935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,934.73	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes	3c	11,724$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	20c	11,645$2,326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,326.21	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes	28c	10,523$2,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,994.29	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	69c	10,373$7,143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,229.86	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	28c	9,686$2,720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,720.33	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	21c	9,484$1,988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,988.21	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	21c	8,495$1,770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,769.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed No	57c	8,227$4,724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,503.07	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	44c	7,399$3,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,269.2	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	60c	7,327$4,373 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,953.46	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	46c	7,323$3,345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,345.21	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes	69c	6,547$4,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,500	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	36c	6,376$2,310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,309.79	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	6,026$842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$841.93	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	10c	5,908$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.3	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	62c	5,858$3,605 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,253.55	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	23c	5,512$1,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,269.15	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	52c	5,500$2,851 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,648.99	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes	45c	5,493$2,446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,446.21	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+3.0wins	+0.12per pick	44cpaid	+40.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	34c	5,342$1,799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,799.31	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	17c	5,286$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$904.1	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	72c	5,129$3,674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,674.4	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	40c	5,100$2,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,064.93	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	64c	4,700$2,993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,992.53	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	58c	4,689$2,724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,964.6	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No	79c	4,541$3,588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$953.67	40	70%28 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	71cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	34c	4,321$1,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,452.35	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	39c	4,006$1,581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,581.2	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	18c	4,000$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710.94	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	61c	4,000$2,427 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,572.98	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	13c	3,772$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.88	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	17c	3,606$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.69	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	10c	3,308$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.2	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	6c	3,279$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.73	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	19c	3,094$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	23c	3,093$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.81	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7166…9002backed Yes	1c	3,026$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	44cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	30c	2,893$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.51	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	22c	2,858$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	20c	2,800$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.13	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	40c	2,781$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	52c	2,765$1,451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,314.17	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	37c	2,725$1,003 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,003.1	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	27c	2,712$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.83	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…e965backed Yes	15c	2,667$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.9	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…4e78backed Yes	45c	2,584$1,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,166.41	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c23…2ccdbacked Yes	17c	2,550$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	51c	2,546$1,305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,304.77	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed No	56c	2,542$1,419 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,123.7	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	3c	2,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes	22c	2,497$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.51	197	26.9%53 W · 144 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	32c	2,470$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.52	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	26c	2,428$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.17	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	29c	2,338$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667.82	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	26c	2,315$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.69	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	28c	2,298$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.78	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	25c	2,287$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.47	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2274…15b9backed No	43c	2,273$977 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,295.61	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbc6…2b42backed No	67c	2,232$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$732.48	47	70.2%33 W · 14 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	59c	2,172$1,271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,271	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	46c	2,133$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$982.32	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x709b…1001backed Yes	25c	2,125$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.79	82	36.6%30 W · 52 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16d3…c0fbbacked Yes	59c	2,100$1,239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,239	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.59per pick	59cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	31c	2,066$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$649.7	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…5379backed Yes	40c	2,048$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.43	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	74c	2,040$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	2,000$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.63	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes	33c	1,986$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes	23c	1,956$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	85	31.8%27 W · 58 L	+6.3wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	47c	1,936$908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$907.86	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes	36c	1,921$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	1,892$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.69	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes	19c	1,824$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.98	123	11.4%14 W · 109 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-43%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	43c	1,823$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.09	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55bf…9ee3backed Yes	25c	1,816$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	85	27.1%23 W · 62 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c33…ce95backed Yes	80c	1,811$1,442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,441.78	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc53e…fbedbacked Yes	62c	1,762$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb7…7331backed Yes	41c	1,719$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$697.01	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	34c	1,711$585 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.99	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c0…71a0backed No	30c	1,648$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,147.71	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed No	46c	1,631$749 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$881.73	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	28c	1,626$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.87	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc73…d73abacked Yes	13c	1,615$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.93	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	34c	1,613$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.04	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x499f…ccafbacked Yes	12c	1,612$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	16c	1,600$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.92	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	76c	1,550$1,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$372.1	261	67%175 W · 86 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	67cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	48c	1,515$721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$721.38	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	30c	1,514$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event