Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f5415818348689395441c166e1beb2d9f8636982b0567eb5e886153ea7ba410

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $738,267
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $284,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $738,267 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	31,825$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.83	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	22,872$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.78	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	0c	17,761$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.03	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	14,786$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.45	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	13,930$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.9	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	13,010$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	12,259$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.56	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	11,307$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	10,325$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x28aa…413abacked Yes	0c	10,080$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…03a8backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	8,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	6,645$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.89	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	6,635$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.78	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	5,300$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.3	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	6c	5,000$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.07	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	4,616$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.79	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	5c	4,062$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	0c	3,804$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	3,628$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.76	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,396$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	3c	3,366$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	3,294$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.83	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c23…2ccdbacked Yes	9c	3,276$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.32	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8cf…7601backed Yes	1c	3,214$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	7cpaid	+88.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	3,122$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	1c	2,817$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.88	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	1c	2,785$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.19	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	2,737$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.39	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes	1c	2,563$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.95	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	0c	2,529$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	2,374$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	2,351$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.76	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	5c	2,325$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.82	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e58…6268backed Yes	11c	2,309$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	2,288$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.01	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,269$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.72	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	2,193$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	5c	2,192$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	1,976$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.65	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,908$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,775$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.35	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,738$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.09	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	3c	1,721$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.52	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	6c	1,684$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	1,500$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	4c	1,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,409$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.24	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8513…75abbacked Yes	8c	1,207$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	1c	1,173$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	9c	1,139$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed Yes	5c	1,068$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.49	67	11.9%8 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes	1c	1,064$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	1,048$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.61	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15bc…398cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	999.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	980$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.13	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	908.96$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.36	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	4c	896$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.47	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ed…deebbacked Yes	1c	869.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+197.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	2c	801.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	2c	771.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x118c…74c5backed Yes	7c	710.71$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	710.51$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.84	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	3c	699.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb0…24f0backed Yes	6c	669.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.2	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f24…3909backed Yes	1c	668.53$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	3c	664.87$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.73	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	626.22$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.47	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes	4c	556.22$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes	9c	530$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.64	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4224…6babbacked Yes	10c	515.62$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	499.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…7557backed Yes	3c	480.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	3c	438.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a12…619ebacked Yes	7c	432.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	6c	411.06$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	9c	393.17$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7b…34f8backed Yes	3c	381.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	7c	369.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	359.06$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	4c	348.46$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	319.63$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.42	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	4c	308.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…e965backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.04	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes	5c	291.46$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa695…5b1ebacked Yes	7c	289.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	8cpaid	+150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	4c	285.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d15…e453backed Yes	7c	271.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-49.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2510…60adbacked Yes	4c	250.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+7.2wins	+0.16per pick	40cpaid	+68%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	4c	250$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	8c	237.36$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes	11c	234.2$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+41%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe87…83d6backed Yes	6c	229.78$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	8c	228.63$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.94	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event